Johvi FC Phoenix - Tartu JK Tammeka 2 prediction 15 October 2026

The Johvi FC Phoenix vs Tartu JK Tammeka 2 prediction for this Esiliiga B clash on October 15, 2026, leans towards the home side, but the head-to-head record paints a different picture. Based on current odds, recent form, and league positions, Johvi FC Phoenix enters the match as the favourite with a 45% win probability, while the draw sits at 22% and an away win for Tartu JK Tammeka 2 holds a 33% chance.

Team Form

Johvi FC Phoenix’s last five matches show a mixed bag of results: three wins and two losses. At home, they lost 0-1 to JK Narva Trans II but bounced back with high-scoring victories over Tabasalu Jk Charma (3-2) and Tallinna Kalev II (4-3). Their away form includes a 3-2 win at Parnu JK Vaprus II and a heavy 2-6 defeat at FCI Levadia Tallinn U19. The team has been involved in high-scoring affairs – every one of those five games saw at least three goals.

Tartu JK Tammeka 2 come into this fixture with two wins and three losses in their last five outings. They secured an away 2-1 win at Tabasalu Jk Charma and a home 3-2 victory over Viljandi Tulevik, but suffered three narrow away defeats (0-1 at FCI Levadia Tallinn U19, 0-1 at JK Narva Trans II, and 2-3 at Tabasalu Jk Charma). Like the hosts, they tend to see goals, though their scoring output on the road has been inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent meetings between these two sides heavily favour Tartu JK Tammeka 2. In the last four encounters, the away team has won three times, while Johvi FC Phoenix managed just one win. The most recent match on August 23, 2026, saw Tammeka Tartu Reserves lose 2-3 at home to Johvi – that was the hosts’ only success in this sequence. Earlier in 2026, Tammeka won 4-2 away at Johvi and 6-1 at home, as well as a 3-0 home win in March 2024. There have been no draws, and both teams consistently find the net – the last three H2H games produced 5, 6, and 7 total goals.

League Table Positions

Johvi FC Phoenix (listed as 1976 Phoenix in the standings) sit 3rd in the Esiliiga B table with 54 points from 31 matches (17 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses). Their home record is particularly strong: 11 wins, 0 draws, and only 3 defeats from 14 home games, scoring heavily in the process. Tartu JK Tammeka 2 do not appear in the available top-10 standings data, suggesting they are positioned significantly lower in the league hierarchy. The gap in league standing reinforces the home team’s status as favourite, though their H2H weakness against Tammeka adds an element of doubt.

Win Probability: Johvi FC Phoenix or Tartu JK Tammeka 2?

After normalising bookmaker odds (removing the margin) and adjusting for form, head-to-head history, and home advantage, the calculated outcome probabilities are:

• Johvi FC Phoenix win: 45%
• Draw: 22%
• Tartu JK Tammeka 2 win: 33%

The odds implied a home win chance around 47%, but the heavy H2H disadvantage for Johvi (1 win in 4 meetings) pulls down their percentage. Tartu JK Tammeka 2’s 33% represents a realistic upset possibility, given they have won on this ground before. The low draw probability (22%) is consistent with the head-to-head record which has seen no stalemates. Overall, Johvi FC Phoenix is the more likely winner, but the data suggests a close contest where Tammeka cannot be written off.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds vary: one set prices a Johvi win at 2.05, the draw at 3.10, and an away win at 3.00; another offers a more skewed 1.75 on the home side, 4.25 for the draw, and 3.15 for Tartu JK Tammeka 2. The market sees Johvi as the favourite, but the disagreement between books suggests uncertainty. Based on the statistical analysis, a home win is the most probable single outcome, yet the value could lie in backing the away team or the over 2.5 goals market, given both sides’ recent scoring trends and the historical goal-fests in this fixture. The prediction is a narrow Johvi FC Phoenix victory, but with caution for a potential away upset.