JK Narva Trans II - Tartu JK Tammeka 2 prediction 15 September 2026

JK Narva Trans II vs Tammeka Tartu Reserves prediction for their Esiliiga B match on September 15, 2026, at 15:00 in Estonia. Based on the analysis of odds, team form, and head-to-head record, JK Narva Trans II is the favorite with a 60% chance of winning.

Team Form

JK Narva Trans II enter the match in strong form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five league outings. They secured a 1-0 home win against FCI Levadia Tallinn U19 on September 12, followed a 1-0 away victory at FA Tartu Kalev on September 6 and a 4-0 home thrashing of Tabasalu Jk Charma on August 29. The only dropped points came in a 3-3 away draw at Viljandi Tulevik on August 23 and a 1-0 away loss to FCI Levadia Tallinn U19 on August 19.

Tammeka Tartu Reserves are struggling, with a single win and four defeats from their last five matches. Their sole victory was a 3-2 home success over Viljandi Tulevik on September 10. Since then, they lost 3-2 away to Tabasalu Jk Charma on September 5, 5-2 at home to FCI Levadia Tallinn U19 on August 31, 3-2 at home to Johvi FC Phoenix on August 23, and 2-1 away to FA Tartu Kalev on August 20. The defensive record is a concern, with 15 goals conceded in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

In eight previous meetings across all competitions, Tammeka Tartu Reserves hold a clear edge with 5 wins, while JK Narva Trans II have 2 wins and 1 draw. Recent encounters have been evenly split: Tammeka won the last two home fixtures (2-1 on July 12, 2026, and 2-1 on May 24, 2026), but JK Narva Trans II won the most recent home clash 4-1 on April 23, 2026. Earlier, the sides played out a 0-0 draw in November 2024, and Tammeka claimed a 2-0 away win on November 4, 2024. The head-to-head hints at Tammeka's ability to trouble the hosts, though their current form is far from convincing.

League Table Positions

JK Narva Trans II (listed as Narva U21 in the standings) sit at the top of the Esiliiga B table with 54 points from 27 matches (17 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses). They boast a flawless home record: 12 wins and 2 draws in 14 home games, with 47 goals scored and only 11 conceded. Tammeka Tartu Reserves are not present in the provided top-nine standings, so their exact position is unavailable. This contrast underscores the home side's dominance in the division.

Win Probability: JK Narva Trans II or Tammeka Tartu Reserves?

Using bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for form and home/away records, we calculate the following probabilities: JK Narva Trans II win – 60%, draw – 22%, Tammeka Tartu Reserves win – 18%. The initial implied odds gave the home side a 55.5% chance, but Narva’s unbeaten home record and Tammeka’s four defeats in five games push that figure higher. Historical H2H data acts as a minor counterweight, preventing a full discard of Tammeka’s chances – they have won 5 of the 8 meetings – yet their current form and the hosts’ near-perfect home strength make a home win the most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers’ odds for this fixture are 1.62 for a JK Narva Trans II win, 3.20 for a draw, and 5.50 for a Tammeka Tartu Reserves win (1X2 market). Some bookies offer even shorter prices on the home side, as low as 1.23. These odds clearly label JK Narva Trans II as the favorite. Taking into account the home team’s form, head-to-head balance, and league table status, the best betting tips point towards a home victory. Based on the stats, we predict JK Narva Trans II to win, but with a note of caution – Tammeka’s past success in this fixture could make the match closer than the odds suggest.