Tabasalu Jk Charma - Tartu JK Tammeka 2 prediction 11 October 2026

The Tabasalu Jk Charma vs Tammeka Tartu Reserves prediction for October 11, 2026, evaluates which side will prevail in this Esiliiga B clash. Kick-off is at 10:30, and based on recent form, head-to-head records, and bookmaker odds, Tabasalu Jk Charma enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability.

Team Form

Tabasalu Jk Charma’s recent form has been a struggle, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches (L, D, L, W, L). A 1-1 home draw against Tallinna JK Legion on Sep 14 was a rare positive, but heavy defeats to Johvi FC Phoenix (3-2) and Tallinna Kalev II (4-1) exposed defensive vulnerabilities. The team has conceded 12 goals in this five-match stretch.

Tammeka Tartu Reserves are in even worse shape with four losses and a single win in their last five outings (L, L, W, L, L). The sole victory was a 3-2 home result against Viljandi Tulevik on Sep 10. Consecutive 1-0 away defeats to FCI Levadia Tallinn U19 and JK Narva Trans II highlight their scoring troubles on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The rivalry shows a clear advantage for Tabasalu Jk Charma, who have won 5 of the 7 meetings, with Tammeka Tartu Reserves winning 2 and no draws. The most recent encounter on Sep 5, 2026, saw Tabasalu secure a 3-2 home victory. Earlier in the season, Tabasalu also won 3-1 away on Jun 18. Historically, these clashes are high-scoring: 29 goals in 7 matches (4.1 per game).

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga B standings, Tabasalu Jk Charma sit 8th with 33 points from 30 matches (10W, 3D, 17L). Their goal difference is -37 (44 scored, 81 conceded). Tammeka Tartu Reserves are not listed in the top 10, indicating they occupy a lower position. Tabasalu’s home form is more respectable: 6 wins in 13 matches at their own ground, with 21 points earned.

Win Probability: Tabasalu Jk Charma or Tammeka Tartu Reserves?

Tabasalu Jk Charma has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Tammeka Tartu Reserves has a 30% chance. These probabilities are derived from the available 1X2 odds (home win around 2.94, draw 2.80, away win 2.33), which were converted to implied probabilities and normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The adjustment reflects Tabasalu’s strong head-to-head dominance (5 wins in 7) and home advantage, countered by their poor recent form. Tammeka’s lower league position and woeful away record reduce their chances despite the slightly shorter odds offered by some bookmakers.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers make Tammeka Tartu Reserves a marginal favorite with the best away win odds at 2.30, while Tabasalu Jk Charma can be backed at 3.05 for a home victory. The draw is priced around 2.88. Given the high-scoring head-to-head history—both teams scored in 6 of 7 meetings—a competitive affair is likely. Based on the stats, Tabasalu Jk Charma are tipped to leverage their home form and historical edge to avoid defeat, with a 1-1 draw a realistic outcome.