Tammeka Tartu - JK Nomme Kalju prediction 20 September 2026

Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme Kalju prediction for the Meistriliiga match on Sep 20, 2026 at 11:30. Bookmakers and head-to-head stats point to JK Nomme Kalju as the favorite; our probability model gives them a 40% chance of winning, a 35% chance for a draw, and Tammeka Tartu a 25% chance to claim victory.

Team Form

Tammeka Tartu’s recent form is mixed (W, L, W, L, W over the last five outings). They have secured three wins in that span, including away victories over Kuressaare (3-1) and Harju JK Laagri (2-0), but suffered home and away defeats to Paide Linnameeskond (0-2) and Flora Tallinn (2-3). This inconsistency has left them fifth in the league table.

JK Nomme Kalju, on the other hand, are in a slump. Their last five results show just one win (W, L, L, L, L). That solitary success came at home against JK Narva Trans (2-0), but they have since lost to Nomme United (1-2), Flora Tallinn (1-2), Levadia Tallinn (2-3), and even a Cup exit to Narva Trans (0-2). Four losses in five matches is a worrying trend for the visitors.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, JK Nomme Kalju have dominated this fixture. In 48 meetings, they have won 25 times, compared to Tammeka Tartu’s 8 wins, with 15 draws. The last five encounters further reinforce that trend, with Kalju winning four – including a 5-1 thrashing on Aug 02, 2026. Tammeka’s only recent win came on Jun 17, 2026 (2-1 away). Overall, the head‑to‑head record gives Kalju a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

JK Nomme Kalju sit third in the Meistriliiga with 47 points (14W, 5D, 9L), while Tammeka Tartu are fifth with 44 points (14W, 2D, 11L). The three‑point gap is narrow, but Kalju’s goal difference (+23 versus Tammeka’s -2) highlights their defensive solidity. Looking at home/away splits: Tammeka’s home record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses (22 points, 6th best at home), whereas Kalju’s away form is 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses (23 points, 3rd best away). The numbers suggest a slight advantage for Kalju, even when playing on the road.

Win Probability: Tammeka Tartu or JK Nomme Kalju?

After combining bookmaker odds, recent form, head‑to‑head history, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Tammeka Tartu win: 25%
• Draw: 35%
• JK Nomme Kalju win: 40%

The percentages are derived from the inverse of the betting odds (home win ~4.00, draw ~2.45, away ~2.10) after removing the bookmaker margin, then adjusted slightly to account for Tammeka’s better recent form and home advantage. Despite Kalju’s poor run, their historical dominance and higher league standing keep them as the most likely winner. However, a draw is a very realistic outcome given both teams’ inconsistency.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced JK Nomme Kalju as clear favorites. Two sets of pre‑match odds are available: one bookmaker offers 4.00 for a Tammeka home win, 2.45 for a draw, and 2.10 for an away win; another has slightly tighter lines at 3.90, 2.40, and 2.00. These odds imply an away‑win probability above 40% – the highest of the three outcomes.

Our prediction: Based on the stats, JK Nomme Kalju is the more likely side to take all three points, but the value may lie in the draw market given Tammeka’s improved home performances and Kalju’s recent struggles. A tight, low‑scoring contest is probable.