Tammeka Tartu - JK Narva Trans prediction 23 October 2026

The Tammeka Tartu vs JK Narva Trans prediction for October 23, 2026 in the Estonian Meistriliiga points to a home win. Tammeka Tartu enters the match as the strong favorite, with a 50% chance of securing victory. The match at Tartu's stadium kicks off at 17:00 local time.

Team Form

Tammeka Tartu’s recent form is mixed but still superior to their opponents. Over the last five matches, Tammeka have recorded two wins and three losses (W,W,L,L,L in chronological order from most recent). Their last two outings were away defeats to Flora Tallinn (0–2) and Paide Linnameeskond (1–2). Before that, they secured back-to-back home wins against Nomme United (4–0) and Viimsi MRJK (4–1). The home form is a key strength.

JK Narva Trans, on the other hand, are struggling badly. Their last five matches have yielded no wins: two draws and three losses (L,L,D,D,L). They were beaten by Paide Linnameeskond (1–2) and Kuressaare (0–1), and could only draw against Pärnu JK Vaprus (2–2) and Levadia Tallinn (1–1). With just two points from a possible 15, Narva’s confidence is low.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides heavily favors Tammeka Tartu. In 50 all-time meetings where Tammeka were at home, they have won 20, drawn 13, and lost 17 to JK Narva Trans. Looking at recent encounters, Tammeka have won four of the last five H2H matches. The most recent clash, on August 30, 2026, ended 2–0 in favor of Tammeka away at Narva. In June 2026, Tammeka won 1–0 at home. The only blemish came in April 2026 when Narva defeated Tammeka 3–0 at their place. However, the overall trend is unmistakably in Tammeka’s favor.

League Table Positions

The league standings highlight the gulf between the teams. Tammeka Tartu sit 5th in the Meistriliiga after 32 matches, with 15 wins, 2 draws, and 15 losses for 47 points (42 goals scored, 51 conceded). JK Narva Trans are rooted to the bottom in 10th place, having won only 5 times, drawn 5, and lost 22, with a goal difference of –45 (25 goals for, 70 against). Tammeka have also been stronger at home, earning 25 points from 15 home games (8 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses), while Narva’s away record is dire – they have just one away win all season (based on overall away table rankings, they are not even among top 8). This disparity in league performance strongly supports a Tammeka victory.

Win Probability: Tammeka Tartu or JK Narva Trans?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head history, and league positions, Tammeka Tartu has a 50% chance of winning the match, a draw is assessed at 28%, and JK Narva Trans has a 22% probability of victory. These probabilities are derived by normalizing the latest bookmaker odds (home ~2.05, draw ~2.30, away ~3.40) and then adjusting for the overwhelming statistical and form advantages of Tammeka. The raw odds implied a home win probability around 40%, but Tammeka’s dominant H2H record (4 wins in 5) and Narva’s dreadful recent form (0 wins in 5) push that number to an even 50%. The draw probability is tempered by the fact that Tammeka’s matches tend to produce a result — they have only drawn 2 times in 32 league games this season. Narva’s slim 22% chance reflects their last-place standing and inability to win on the road.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have listed odds for the 1X2 market. The average price for a Tammeka Tartu win is around 2.05, a draw can be backed at approximately 2.30, and an away win for JK Narva Trans is offered at about 3.40. These odds confirm the home side as the clear favorite. Taking into account all the stats, the best betting tip for this Meistriliiga fixture is to back Tammeka to win. A correct score prediction is not provided, but a low-scoring win (e.g., 1–0 or 2–0) seems plausible given Tammeka’s solid defense at home and Narva’s attacking struggles.