Tampa Bay Utd Women - Carolina Uslw League Women prediction 10 October 2026

Tampa Bay Utd Women vs Carolina Uslw League Women prediction for the USL Women match on Oct 10, 2026 at 23:00. Based on recent form and head-to-head stats, Carolina Uslw League Women enter as the favorite with a 50% chance of winning.

Team Form

Tampa Bay Utd Women’s last five results: D-D-W-W-L. They drew 1-1 at home against Lexington Women and away to DC Power Women, then beat Fort Lauderdale United Women 2-1 at home and won 2-1 away at Carolina Uslw League Women, before a 2-3 loss away at Sporting Jacksonville Women. Their recent form shows inconsistency with two wins, two draws, and a loss.

Carolina Uslw League Women’s last five: D-W-W-W-L. They drew 3-3 at home to Sporting Jacksonville Women, beat Brooklyn City Women 1-0 at home, won 1-0 away at Lexington Women, thrashed Fort Lauderdale United Women 3-0 at home, and then lost 1-2 at home to Tampa Bay Utd Women (their only recent defeat). Carolina has three wins in their last five, indicating stronger form.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, in 8 previous meetings, the record is evenly balanced: Tampa Bay Utd Women have 3 wins, Carolina Uslw League Women 3 wins, and 2 draws. Recent encounters, however, tilt toward Carolina: in the last five matches (all in 2025-2026), Carolina won three, Tampa Bay one, and one draw. Notably, when Tampa Bay hosted Carolina this year (April 26 and April 5, 2026), they lost both home games 1-2. So Carolina has proven they can win away against Tampa Bay.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top of the USL Women standings (top 12 overall, home, or away). This suggests both sides are mid‑table or lower, making the match even harder to call purely on league standing. However, their recent scoring records suggest Carolina is currently in better shape.

Win Probability: Tampa Bay Utd Women or Carolina Uslw League Women?

Based on bookmaker odds (home 3.25‑3.60, draw 2.20‑3.30, away 2.00‑2.37), the implied probabilities after normalizing are roughly 26% for a home win, 33% for a draw, and 41% for an away win. Factoring in recent form (Carolina’s three wins in five vs Tampa Bay’s two wins in five) and head‑to‑head results (Carolina won three of the last five, including two at this venue this year), we shift the percentages further toward the visitors: Tampa Bay Utd Women 25%, draw 25%, Carolina Uslw League Women 50%. So Carolina has a clear edge and a 50% chance to come away with the win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Carolina as the favorite: odds for an away win are around 2.00‑2.37, while a home win for Tampa Bay Utd Women is priced at 3.25‑3.60, and the draw at 2.20‑3.30. This aligns with our probability assessment. Considering all available stats, the most likely match outcome is a Carolina victory. A bet on Carolina at these odds offers value given their strong head‑to‑head road record against Tampa Bay.