Tampereen Ilves Women - KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women prediction 3 October 2026

The Tampereen Ilves Women vs KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women prediction for October 3, 2026, in the Kansallinen Liga Women points to an away win. Based on our analysis, KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women have a 55% probability of victory, while Tampereen Ilves Women have just a 20% chance, with a draw at 25%.

Team Form

Tampereen Ilves Women come into this match with a poor run of form, having lost four of their last five league matches (W1, L4). Their only win in that stretch was a 3-0 away victory against IF Gnistan Women on September 26. At home, they have suffered three consecutive defeats, conceding 11 goals in those games:

• Sep 19: Tampereen Ilves Women 2-3 Aland United Women
• Sep 12: Tampereen Ilves Women 2-5 HJK Helsinki Women
• Aug 22: KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women 2-1 Tampereen Ilves Women (away)

KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women, on the other hand, have been in solid form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. After a 0-1 home loss to leaders HJK Helsinki, they drew 0-0 with HPS Women, then secured wins against Aland United (2-0 away), IF Gnistan (2-0 home), and a 2-1 home victory over Tampereen Ilves. Their away form is particularly strong, with five wins from seven road games this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women. In 17 previous meetings across all competitions, KuPs have won 14 times, Tampereen Ilves have won twice, and there has been one draw. The last five encounters show a similar pattern:

• Aug 22, 2026: KuPs 2-1 Ilves (Kansallinen Liga)
• Jul 12, 2026: KuPs 2-4 Ilves (Kansallinen Liga)
• May 9, 2026: Ilves 2-3 KuPs (Kansallinen Liga)
• Jul 30, 2025: Ilves 3-3 KuPs (Cup Women)
• Aug 31, 2023: Ilves 1-6 KuPs (Cup Women)

KuPs won three of those five, with Ilves winning one and one draw. The most recent clash on August 22, 2026, saw KuPs win 2-1 at home.

League Table Positions

In the Kansallinen Liga Women standings, KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women sit 3rd with 28 points from 14 matches (9 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Tampereen Ilves Women are 5th with 22 points (7 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses). The 6-point gap reflects the visitors' superior consistency. At home, Ilves have struggled, ranking 5th in the home table with just 7 points from 7 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). KuPs, meanwhile, boast the 3rd-best away record with 15 points from 7 away matches (5 wins, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Tampereen Ilves Women or KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women?

Based on the available data — including league positions, recent form, and the dominant head-to-head record — we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Tampereen Ilves Women have a 20% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women have a 55% chance. The visitors' strong away form (71% win rate) and Ilves' poor home record (29% win rate) heavily tilt the probabilities in KuPs' favor. The historical H2H, where KuPs have won 82% of all meetings, further supports this assessment.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds were available in the provided data for this fixture. However, based on the statistical analysis, KuPs Kuopion Palloseura Women are the clear favorites to win. The prediction is an away victory, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 or 3-1 in favor of KuPs, given both teams' recent scoring and defensive records. Tampereen Ilves Women may find the net at home, but their defensive frailties are likely to be exploited by the in-form visitors.