Tartu JK Welco Elekter - JK Nomme Kalju II prediction 14 September 2026

Tartu JK Welco Elekter vs JK Nomme Kalju 2 prediction for the Esiliiga match on September 14, 2026, at 16:00. Based on the latest stats, Tartu JK Welco Elekter is the overwhelming favorite with a 75% win probability.

Team Form

Tartu JK Welco Elekter's last five matches: D, D, L, W, W. They drew 0-0 at Levadia Tallinn II on Sep 10, drew 1-1 at Tallinna Kalev on Sep 5, lost 1-3 at home to Viimsi MRJK on Aug 29, won 4-2 away at JK Nomme Kalju 2 on Aug 23, and won 4-2 at home against Levadia Tallinn II on Aug 20. The team has scored 10 goals in this period, showing attacking strength despite two recent draws.

JK Nomme Kalju 2's last five matches: L, L, W, L, L. They lost 1-5 at home to Flora Tallinn II on Sep 10, lost 0-1 at Elva on Sep 6, won 2-0 at FC Tallinn on Aug 29, lost 2-4 at home to Tartu JK Welco Elekter on Aug 23, and lost 0-3 at home to Tallinna Kalev on Aug 20. With four defeats and 13 goals conceded, their form is poor.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Tartu JK Welco Elekter: 11 wins, 0 draws, 1 win for JK Nomme Kalju 2. The last five meetings all ended in Tartu victories:

• Aug 23, 2026: JK Nomme Kalju 2 2-4 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
• May 28, 2026: Tartu JK Welco Elekter 4-2 JK Nomme Kalju 2
• Apr 11, 2026: JK Nomme Kalju 2 1-5 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
• Oct 23, 2025: Tartu JK Welco Elekter 5-2 JK Nomme Kalju 2
• Jul 19, 2025: JK Nomme Kalju 2 0-3 Tartu JK Welco Elekter

Tartu has scored at least three goals in each of these wins, underlining their dominance.

League Table Positions

Tartu JK Welco Elekter sits 1st in the Esiliiga with 56 points from 28 matches (17 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses). They have scored 76 goals and conceded 39. At home, they are especially strong: 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, with 39 goals for and 23 against.

JK Nomme Kalju 2 is 10th (bottom) with 22 points from 28 matches (6 wins, 4 draws, 18 losses). They have scored only 36 goals and conceded 73. Their away form is not listed in the top eight, indicating a very weak record on the road.

Win Probability: Tartu JK Welco Elekter or JK Nomme Kalju 2?

Tartu JK Welco Elekter has a 75% chance of winning, the draw is at 17%, and JK Nomme Kalju 2 has an 8% chance. This calculation starts from the average bookmaker odds (home 1.18, draw 4.44, away 8.21), which imply a 71% home win probability after removing the margin. The adjustment upward reflects Tartu's top league position, dominant H2H record (11 wins in 12 matches), and Kalju 2's poor form (four losses in five). Home advantage further solidifies Tartu as the clear favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer home win odds between 1.14 and 1.22, draw odds between 3.30 and 9.33, and away win odds between 6.50 and 13.50. These odds make Tartu JK Welco Elekter the overwhelming favorite. Based on the stats, Tartu JK Welco Elekter is expected to win comfortably.