Kampong Speu - Tboung Khmum prediction 14 October 2026

The Kampong Speu vs Tboung Khmum prediction for the Cup match on October 14, 2026, points to a clear away favorite. Tboung Khmum enters this fixture with a 62% win probability according to our analysis, while Kampong Speu has just a 12% chance of causing an upset. The match kicks off at 09:15 local time in Cambodia.

Team Form

Kampong Speu's recent form is mixed. In their last five matches, they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss (W-W-W-D-L). The most recent result was a heavy 6-2 defeat away to Tboung Khmum in the Cup on October 6. Before that, they drew 4-4 with Takeo and secured wins against Phnom Penh Galaxy (3-1), Kandal (4-2), and Takeo (7-2).

Tboung Khmum, on the other hand, is in outstanding form. They are unbeaten in their last five outings, with four wins and one draw (W-W-W-W-D). Their latest victory was that 6-2 demolition of Kampong Speu. They also beat Kampong Cham 4-1, Preah Khan Reach Svay Rieng 6-0, Prey Veng 7-2, and drew 1-1 with Kampong Cham back in December 2025. Tboung Khmum has scored 24 goals in these five matches, showing immense attacking power.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met only once in recent history. That encounter took place just eight days ago, on October 6, 2026, in the Cup. Tboung Khmum hosted Kampong Speu and cruised to a 6-2 win. The head-to-head record currently stands at 1 win for Tboung Khmum, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Kampong Speu.

Win Probability: Kampong Speu or Tboung Khmum?

After combining the bookmakers' odds with the teams' recent form and the head-to-head result, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Kampong Speu win: 12%
• Draw: 26%
• Tboung Khmum win: 62%

We started with the inverse of the average odds (home 7.17, draw 3.30, away 1.48) and normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted slightly for Tboung Khmum's dominant form and the 6-2 H2H win. Tboung Khmum's superior attack and Kampong Speu's defensive frailties make the away win the most likely outcome. The probability of a draw is moderate, but the gap in quality suggests Tboung Khmum will secure all three points.

Kampong Speu vs Tboung Khmum Prediction: Odds & Betting Tips

Bookmakers heavily favor Tboung Khmum. The best available odds for this Cup match are:

• Kampong Speu to win: 7.50
• Draw: 3.75
• Tboung Khmum to win: 1.36

These odds imply a high probability of an away win. The odds for a home victory are as high as 7.50, reflecting Kampong Speu's underdog status. Based on the stats, the smart betting tip is to back Tboung Khmum to win. Given the 6-2 scoreline in their recent meeting, a bet on over 2.5 goals could also be worth considering.