Telavi - Shturmi prediction 16 September 2026

Telavi vs Shturmi prediction for the Erovnuli 2 match on Sep 16, 2026 at 15:00. The bookmakers make the draw the most likely single outcome, while Telavi have a higher win probability than Shturmi. Our probability model sets the chances at 37% for Telavi, 42% for the draw, and 21% for Shturmi.

Telavi vs Shturmi Prediction: Team Form

Telavi enter this home match with mixed recent results in Erovnuli 2: D, L, L, W, D. They drew 2-2 away at Gori on Sep 12, lost 0-3 at home to Samtredia on Sep 07, lost 2-1 away at Sioni Bolnisi on Aug 29, beat Merani Martvili 1-0 at home on Aug 22, and drew 1-1 away at Kolkheti Poti on Aug 15. Overall, Telavi have scored 27 goals and conceded 23 in 25 league matches.

Shturmi's last five results are W, W, L, L, W. They beat FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi 2-0 at home on Sep 12, won 4-3 away at Aragvi Dusheti on Sep 06, lost 3-1 away at Gori on Aug 29, lost 0-1 at home to Samtredia on Aug 22, and won 1-0 away at Sioni Bolnisi on Aug 15. Shturmi have scored 27 goals and conceded 22 in the league.

Head-to-Head Record

Telavi lead the head-to-head with 1 win and 1 draw from two Erovnuli 2 meetings. On Jun 13, 2026, Shturmi lost 0-2 at home to Telavi. On Apr 22, 2026, Telavi drew 1-1 at home with Shturmi. The aggregate score across those two matches is 3-1 in Telavi's favor.

League Table Positions

Telavi are 2nd in the overall table with 41 points from 25 matches (11 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses). Shturmi are 3rd with 39 points (10 wins, 9 draws, 6 losses). The gap between the teams is just two points.

Home and away splits are important for this fixture. Telavi are the best home side in Erovnuli 2: 13 home matches, 8 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 28 points, and only 7 goals conceded at home. Shturmi are 2nd in the away table with 13 away matches, 3 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses, and 17 points.

Win Probability: Telavi or Shturmi?

The odds imply a tight match. From the first bookmaker odds (2.75, 2.05, 3.75), the margin-removed implied probabilities are about 32.5% for Telavi, 43.6% for the draw, and 23.9% for Shturmi. The second set (2.72, 1.98, 3.85) implies 32.5%, 44.6%, and 22.9%. After normalizing and adjusting for Telavi's home strength, Shturmi's away draws, and the head-to-head record, the model percentages are:

• Telavi win: 37%
• Draw: 42%
• Shturmi win: 21%

Telavi has a 37% chance of winning, the draw is at 42%, and Shturmi has a 21% chance. The draw is the single most likely outcome, but among match winners Telavi is the more probable side.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: Telavi win 2.75, draw 2.05, Shturmi win 3.75. Another bookmaker has Telavi win 2.72, draw 1.98, Shturmi win 3.85. Bookmakers see the draw as the favorite.

Telavi vs Shturmi prediction: Based on the stats and odds, the draw is the primary pick. A double chance of Telavi or draw is also a solid betting tip because Telavi are very strong at home and Shturmi have drawn eight of 13 away matches.