Thor Akureyri Women - Fram Women prediction 25 September 2026

Our Thor Akureyri Women vs Fram Women prediction for the Premier League Women match on September 25, 2026 (19:00 local time) points to a tight contest with the home side slightly favoured. Thor Akureyri Women enter this fixture with a 50% win probability based on form, head-to-head record, and league standings, while Fram Women hold a 25% chance and the draw is rated at 25%.

Team Form

Thor Akureyri Women’s last five results read W, L, D, L, W, showing an inconsistent but resilient run. They secured a 1-0 away win at Valur Reykjavik on Sep 19 and thrashed Vikingur Women 3-0 away on Aug 14, but suffered home and away defeats in between. Thor have managed two wins, one draw, and two losses in that spell, scoring five and conceding three.

Fram Women’s recent form is D, W, W, L, L. After drawing 2-2 at home with Vikingur on Sep 18, they claimed back-to-back 3-2 wins over IBV Vestmannaeyja (away) and Stjarnan (home). However, heavy losses to Grindavik (0-4 away) and FH Hafnarfjodur (4-6 home) exposed defensive frailties. Fram have conceded 10 goals in their last three outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides are evenly split: Thor Akureyri Women have two wins, Fram Women two wins, and one draw. The most recent clash on Aug 7, 2026 saw Thor win 2-0 at home. Earlier in the 2026 season, Fram won 3-2 on their own turf. Both teams have shown they can beat the other, making this a hard-to-call encounter.

League Table Positions

In the overall Premier League Women standings, Thor sit 7th with 21 points (7 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses) from 17 matches, while Fram are 8th with 18 points (6 wins, 0 draws, 11 losses). Thor’s goal difference stands at -3 (29:32), markedly better than Fram’s -20 (23:43). At home, Thor have collected 12 points from nine games (4-0-5), while Fram’s away record reads 3-0-6 with a -11 goal difference. The numbers give Thor a clear statistical edge, especially in defence.

Win Probability: Thor Akureyri Women or Fram Women?

Based on all available data—league positions, recent form, head-to-head balance, and the home advantage—we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Thor Akureyri Women win: 50%
• Draw: 25%
• Fram Women win: 25%

Thor’s solid home defensive record (13 goals conceded in nine games) and Fram’s leaky away defence (23 conceded in nine) tilt the probabilities towards the hosts. However, the head-to-head equality and both teams’ tendency to avoid draws this season (zero league draws each) keep a draw at a realistic 25% chance. Given the stats, Thor Akureyri Women are the more likely winner, but a narrow result or a shock away win cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, bookmaker odds for this fixture are not available. This prediction is therefore driven entirely by the underlying stats. The data suggests that if odds were published, Thor would be priced as moderate favourites. Our final prediction: Thor Akureyri Women to win, reflecting their home strength and slightly superior league performance, but with the caveat that Fram Women possess enough attacking threat to make it a competitive match.