Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger prediction 16 October 2026

The Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger prediction for October 16, 2026, points to a tight Chinese Super League clash at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head data, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen enters as a slight favorite with a 42% win probability, but Tianjin Jinmen Tiger's strong recent run makes the draw (34%) and an away win (24%) realistic outcomes.

Team Form

Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen's last five matches have all ended in draws: 2-2 at Shenzhen Peng City, 1-1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0-0 at home to Chengdu Rongcheng, 1-1 at home to Chongqing Tonglianglong, and a wild 4-4 at Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren. That run shows resilience but a lack of cutting edge, with just 8 wins in 27 league games.

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, on the other hand, are flying. Their last five: a 1-0 win at Chengdu Rongcheng, 1-0 home win over Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren, 2-1 home win over Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown, 1-1 home draw with Qingdao West Coast, and a 0-0 draw at Wuhan Three Towns. Three wins and two draws underline their momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

In 21 previous meetings, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen has won 8, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 6, with 7 draws. The last five encounters: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1-2 Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen (May 2026), Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1-0 Henan (Sep 2025), Henan 3-4 Tianjin (May 2025), Henan 1-0 Tianjin (Aug 2023), and Tianjin 1-0 Henan (May 2023). Tianjin has won three of those five, including a high-scoring away win in 2025.

League Table Positions

After 27 rounds, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger sits 9th with 38 points (10 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses), while Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen is 11th with 34 points (8 wins, 10 draws, 9 losses). Tianjin's away record is solid: 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, ranking 6th in the away table. Henan's home form is less convincing — 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, leaving them outside the top 8 home sides.

Win Probability: Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen or Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?

Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger has a 24% chance. These probabilities are derived from bookmaker odds (inverse of average odds, normalized), then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head trends. The odds imply a home win probability around 47%, but Henan's five straight draws and Tianjin's three wins in five games shift the balance. Home advantage keeps Henan as the most likely winner, but the draw and an away upset are very much on the cards.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen as the favorite, with best odds around 1.72 for a home win, 2.20 for the draw, and 4.00 for an away win. The odds reflect the home side's nominal edge, but the market has shortened the draw price in some places, acknowledging Henan's drawing habit. Based on the stats, a low-scoring draw or a narrow home win are the most probable outcomes. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger's away form suggests they can snatch a point, making the draw a value pick for betting tips.