Buckhurst Hill - Tilbury prediction 6 October 2026

Buckhurst Hill vs Tilbury prediction for the Isthmian League North Division match on October 6, 2026, at 19:45. Based on our analysis of team form, league positions, and bookmaker odds, Buckhurst Hill has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Tilbury has a 30% probability. The home side enters the game in stronger recent form, while Tilbury has struggled for consistency.

Team Form

Buckhurst Hill come into this fixture with three wins from their last four matches (W, W, W, L). The only defeat was a 4-1 away loss at Hashtag United on October 3. Prior to that, they beat Concord Rangers 2-1 away on September 22, defeated Yaxley 3-0 at home in the FA Cup on September 8, and won 2-0 at home against Grays Athletic on August 25. Over those four games, they scored eight goals and conceded five, showing solid attacking output and defensive resilience at home.

Tilbury's recent form is less convincing: one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five (D, L, W, D, L). They drew 1-1 at home with Redbridge on October 3, lost 6-2 away at Cambridge City on September 15, beat Walthamstow 2-1 at home on August 31, played a 0-0 home draw with Bowers Pitsea on August 25, and lost 0-3 at home to Hashtag United on August 18. The heavy away defeat and only one win in five highlight their inconsistency, especially on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Buckhurst Hill and Tilbury. This will be the first competitive encounter between the two sides.

League Table Positions

In the Isthmian League North Division standings, Tilbury occupy 10th place with 57 points from 41 matches (15 wins, 12 draws, 14 losses). They have scored 56 goals and conceded 53. Buckhurst Hill are not listed in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a lower league position. Despite the gap in the standings, Buckhurst Hill's current form suggests they can compete strongly at home.

Win Probability: Buckhurst Hill or Tilbury?

We calculated the outcome probabilities using bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for recent form and home advantage. The average odds across three bookmakers implied a 36.1% chance for a Buckhurst Hill win, 32.5% for a draw, and 31.4% for a Tilbury win. After factoring in Buckhurst Hill's three wins in four games and Tilbury's 6-2 away loss in their last road trip, we shift the probabilities to: Buckhurst Hill win 40%, draw 30%, Tilbury win 30%. Buckhurst Hill are the more likely winners, but the match remains competitive with a high chance of a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds for the 1X2 market show Buckhurst Hill as the slight favorite. The best home win odds are as low as 2.05, with other books offering 2.70 and 2.75. The draw is priced between 2.30 and 3.75, and an away win for Tilbury ranges from 2.75 to 3.00. These odds reflect a tight contest. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that Buckhurst Hill have the edge, but a draw is a realistic outcome. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory appears the most probable scoreline.