Tiverton Town - Hartpury University FC prediction 6 October 2026

The Tiverton Town vs Hartpury University FC prediction for this Southern Division One match on Oct 6, 2026, at 19:30 points to a closely contested affair. Based on our win probability analysis, Hartpury University FC holds a slight edge with a 37% chance of winning, while Tiverton Town has a 33% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Tiverton Town enters this match in dismal form, having lost their last five matches. The run includes heavy defeats: an 8-0 loss at Bracknell Town, a 6-0 home loss to Wimborne Town, and a 3-0 home loss to Farnham Town. They have conceded 23 goals in these five games, scoring only 3.

Hartpury University FC's recent form is more resilient, though winless in their last five (D, L, D, D, L). They drew 1-1 at home to Worcester Raiders, lost 1-0 at home to Mousehole, and drew 3-3 with Shaftesbury Town. While not spectacular, they have been harder to beat than Tiverton.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Tiverton Town and Hartpury University FC. This will be their first meeting.

League Table Positions

Hartpury University FC sits 7th in the Southern Division One table with 66 points from 41 matches (20 wins, 6 draws, 15 losses). Their away record shows 10 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses. Tiverton Town is not present in the provided league standings, as their recent matches were in the Southern League Premier Division, making a direct table comparison impossible.

Win Probability: Tiverton Town or Hartpury University FC?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Tiverton Town win – 33%, draw – 30%, Hartpury University FC win – 37%. These figures are derived from the bookmaker odds (home 2.30, draw 3.50, away 2.55) after removing the margin, then adjusted for the teams' contrasting form. Tiverton's five straight losses, including multiple heavy defeats, significantly reduce their home advantage, while Hartpury's three draws in five games suggest they can grind out a result. Hartpury University FC is therefore the more likely winner, but a draw is a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds see Tiverton Town as a marginal favourite at 2.30, with the draw at 3.50 and Hartpury University FC at 2.55. Bookmakers give a slight edge to the home side, but our analysis, factoring in Tiverton's terrible form, tilts the balance toward the visitors. Our Tiverton Town vs Hartpury University FC prediction: based on the stats, Hartpury University FC looks the value bet to avoid defeat, with a draw being a very realistic outcome.