Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey prediction 17 September 2026

This Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey prediction covers the Kazakhstan Premier League match on Sep 17 at 14:00. Based on the stats, Tobol Kostanay are the favorite with a 48% win probability, while the draw is at 29% and Yelimay Semey has a 23% chance.

Team Form

Tobol Kostanay come into this match with four wins in their last five games. Their recent results are W, W, L, W, W. They beat Kairat Almaty 4-1 away on Sep 13, Ulytau 3-1 at home on Sep 6, Kaisar Kyzylorda 3-2 at home on Aug 25, and Irtysh Pavlodar 2-0 away on Aug 16. The only defeat in that run was a 1-0 loss at Kaspiy Aktau on Aug 30.

Yelimay Semey have two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. Their recent results are W, L, L, D, W. They beat Zhetysu Taldykorgan 2-1 at home on Sep 12 and Irtysh Pavlodar 3-1 at home on Aug 9, but lost 4-0 at Astana on Sep 6 and 2-0 at home to Kairat Almaty on Aug 31. They drew 2-2 at Kaspiy Aktau on Aug 16.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four head-to-head meetings, Tobol Kostanay have won 2, Yelimay Semey have won 1, and 1 match ended level. The most recent meeting was on Apr 04, 2026, when Yelimay Semey won 1-0 at home. Before that, Tobol Kostanay won 3-2 away on Jul 05, 2025. The other two results were a 1-1 draw on Mar 30, 2025 and a 4-2 Tobol Kostanay home win on Mar 06, 2024.

League Table Positions

Yelimay Semey are 6th in the Premier League table with 35 points from 24 matches. Tobol Kostanay are 7th with 34 points from 25 matches. Both teams have scored 33 goals and conceded 33 goals. At home, Tobol Kostanay are strong: 5th in the home table with 26 points from 11 matches, including 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Yelimay Semey are 4th in the away table with 17 points from 12 away matches, with 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses.

Win Probability: Tobol Kostanay or Yelimay Semey?

Tobol Kostanay has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Yelimay Semey has a 23% chance. This probability calculation starts from the bookmaker odds, which imply a home win around 43%, a draw around 33%, and an away win around 24% after removing the margin. The adjustment reflects Tobol Kostanay's strong home record of 8 wins in 11 home matches, four wins in their last five games, and a 2-1 head-to-head edge in the last four meetings. Yelimay Semey's mixed away form and the 4-0 loss at Astana reduce their away chance.

Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey Prediction: Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Tobol Kostanay as the favorite. The 1X2 odds range from 1.91 to 2.09 for a home win, 2.30 to 3.70 for the draw, and 3.30 to 3.75 for an away win. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is a Tobol Kostanay win. Yelimay Semey have enough quality to make it competitive, but the home advantage and recent form point to Tobol Kostanay.