Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi SC prediction 4 October 2026
Kamatamare Sanuki
Tochigi SC
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- 68'EventY. Goto
Kamatamare SanukiTochigi SCKamatamare SanukiTochigi SCTochigi SCKamatamare SanukiKamatamare SanukiTochigi SCKamatamare SanukiTochigi SCTochigi SCKamatamare Sanuki| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | +11 | 29 |
| 2 |  Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28:15 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  FC Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | +10 | 23 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17:9 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Nara | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23:11 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13:6 | +7 | 20 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16:15 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 |  Nagano Parceiro | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 |  Zweigen Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18:18 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Reilac Shiga FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:19 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:16 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 |  Giravanz Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 |  TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12:22 | -10 | 13 |
| 18 |  Fukushima United FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 11 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 15:25 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Kochi United SC | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5:28 | -23 | 5 |
Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC Prediction (Oct 4)
The Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC prediction for October 4, 2026, points to an away win in this J3 League clash. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Tochigi SC enters the match as the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Kamatamare Sanuki struggles at 26% and the draw sits at 32%.
Team Form
Kamatamare Sanuki are in dreadful form, losing their last five matches across all competitions. The run includes a 3-4 home defeat to Gifu, a 1-2 loss at Ehime FC, a 0-1 reverse at FC Ryukyu, a 0-2 home loss to JEF United Ichihara Chiba in the League Cup, and a 0-3 home thrashing by Reilac Shiga FC. They have conceded 12 goals in those five games, scoring only 4.
Tochigi SC have been slightly more resilient, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five. They lost 1-2 at home to Matsumoto Yamaga, fell 1-3 at Kagoshima United, drew 1-1 at Nagano Parceiro, lost 0-1 at home to Montedio Yamagata in the League Cup, and beat Kochi United SC 2-0 at home. The away side has managed to find the net in three of those five outings.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Tochigi SC. In five previous meetings, Tochigi SC have won four times, Kamatamare Sanuki once, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounter on July 12, 2025, saw Kamatamare Sanuki win 4-1 at home, but prior to that Tochigi SC had won four straight, including a 1-0 home victory in May 2025 and three wins in 2018 (1-2, 1-2, and 1-0).
League Table Positions
Neither side appears in the top 12 of the overall J3 League standings, indicating both are in the lower half. Tochigi SC, however, sit 8th in the home form table with 7 points from 4 home games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Kamatamare Sanuki are absent from all top-8 lists, suggesting they are closer to the bottom. The visitors clearly have a slight edge in the league pecking order.
Win Probability: Kamatamare Sanuki or Tochigi SC?
After normalizing the average bookmaker odds (home 3.21, draw 2.66, away 2.21) and adjusting for recent form and H2H dominance, the calculated win probabilities are: Kamatamare Sanuki 26%, draw 32%, Tochigi SC 42%. The away sideโs superior head-to-head record, slightly better recent results, and Kamatamare Sanukiโs five-match losing streak all point toward an away victory.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers across the board see Tochigi SC as the favorite. The best available odds for a home win are around 3.78, a draw at 3.50, and an away win as low as 1.91. The average odds of 2.21 for an away win reflect the marketโs confidence. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Tochigi SC win, with a draw being the second most probable result. A home win would be a major upset given Kamatamare Sanukiโs current form.
Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC โ FAQ
- Who will win Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC?
- Tochigi SC are the favorites to win, with a calculated probability of 42%. Kamatamare Sanuki have a 26% chance, and the draw is at 32%. The away teamโs strong head-to-head record (4 wins in 5 meetings) and the home sideโs five-match losing streak make an away win the most likely outcome.
- What is the win probability for Tochigi SC?
- Tochigi SC have a 42% win probability, based on normalized bookmaker odds and adjusted for team form and head-to-head statistics. They are clear favorites thanks to Kamatamare Sanukiโs poor run of five consecutive defeats.
- When is the Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC match?
- The match is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with kick-off at 06:00 (local time, +01:00 UTC). It is a J3 League fixture, the third tier of Japanese football.
- What are the odds for Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tochigi SC?
- Average bookmaker odds are 3.21 for a Kamatamare Sanuki win, 2.66 for a draw, and 2.21 for a Tochigi SC victory. The best available odds reach 3.78 for the home side and as low as 1.91 for the away win, reflecting the marketโs view of Tochigi SC as the strong favorite.