Toluca Women - Chivas Guadalajara Women prediction 31 October 2026

Toluca Women vs Chivas Guadalajara Women prediction for the Liga MX Women match on Oct 31, 2026, points to a close contest. Based on team form, league table positions, and head-to-head record, Chivas Guadalajara Women are the slight favorite. The estimated win probability is 39% for Chivas Guadalajara Women, 34% for Toluca Women, and 27% for the draw.

Who will win? The stats suggest an away lean, but Toluca Women’s home advantage keeps the match tighter than the table may look.

Team Form

Toluca Women come into this match with a recent sequence of W, D, W, W, L. They beat Cruz Azul Women 2-1 away, drew 0-0 at home with Santos Laguna Women, won 2-1 at Pachuca Women, won 4-0 at Club Necaxa Women, then lost 2-7 at home to Tigres UANL Women. That defensive collapse is a concern.

Chivas Guadalajara Women have been more consistent, with a last-five record of W, W, W, W, L. They beat Club Necaxa Women 7-0 at home, Juarez Women 1-0 at home, Cruz Azul Women 1-0 away, and Tijuana Women 2-0 away, before losing 2-3 at home to Monterrey Women. Chivas scored 13 goals and conceded only 3 across those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five head-to-head meetings show 1 Toluca Women win, 2 draws, and 2 Chivas Guadalajara Women wins. The most recent meeting was Apr 25, 2026: a 1-1 draw at Chivas Guadalajara Women. At Toluca Women’s home, the teams split recent Liga MX Women results: Toluca won 2-1 on Aug 14, 2025, and Chivas won 2-0 on Nov 10, 2025.

League Table Positions

Toluca Women are 5th in the Liga MX Women table with 26 points from 12 matches: 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 27 goals scored, and 17 conceded. Chivas Guadalajara Women are 6th with 24 points from 11 matches: 8 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 28 goals scored, and 11 conceded. At home, Toluca Women are 7th in the home table with 11 points from 6 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. Chivas Guadalajara Women are 5th in the away table with 12 points from 5 away games: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 12 goals scored, 4 conceded.

Win Probability: Toluca Women vs Chivas Guadalajara Women Prediction

The estimated win probability is: Toluca Women has a 34% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Chivas Guadalajara Women has a 39% chance. The calculation is based on the available data, using team form, home/away records, and H2H results. Chivas Guadalajara Women have the stronger away record and better goal difference (+17 compared with Toluca Women’s +10), while Toluca Women’s home record has included too many draws. The conclusion: Chivas Guadalajara Women are the more likely winner, but not by a wide margin.

Odds & Match Prediction

The match data lists the 1X2 market, but no specific bookmaker odds are included. Therefore, this Toluca Women vs Chivas Guadalajara Women prediction and betting tips analysis is based on stats rather than odds. Based on the stats, Chivas Guadalajara Women are the slight favorite. The most likely match outcome is an away win, with a draw also realistic. Toluca Women’s chance increases if they avoid the defensive errors shown in the 2-7 loss to Tigres UANL Women.