Pachuca Women - Toluca Women prediction 5 October 2026

The Pachuca Women vs Toluca Women prediction for October 5, 2026, in Liga MX Women points to a tight contest with Pachuca Women holding a slight edge. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head stats, Pachuca Women have a 40% win probability, while Toluca Women are at 32%, and the draw is at 28%.

Team Form

Pachuca Women's recent form is concerning: they have lost four of their last five matches (W, L, L, L, L). Their only win in that run was a 4-1 home victory over Santos Laguna Women on Sep 27. Defeats came against Atletico San Luis Women (2-1), Club Leon Women (1-0), Tijuana Women (3-1), and Tigres UANL Women (2-0).

Toluca Women, on the other hand, have won three of their last five (W, L, W, L, W). They beat Club Necaxa Women 4-0 away, thrashed Tijuana Women 6-0 at home, and edged Club Leon Women 1-0 at home. Losses were heavy: 7-2 at home to Tigres UANL Women and 5-1 away to Monterrey Women.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three meetings strongly favor Toluca Women. They won 3-2 away on Mar 21, 2025, and 2-1 away on Aug 5, 2025. The most recent clash, on Feb 17, 2026, ended 1-1 at Toluca Women's ground. Pachuca Women have yet to beat Toluca Women in this sample, with a head-to-head record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga MX Women standings, Toluca Women sit 5th with 19 points from 9 games (6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Pachuca Women are outside the top 12. At home, Pachuca Women rank 8th with 9 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss). Toluca Women's away form is strong: 5th in the away table with 9 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss).

Win Probability: Pachuca Women or Toluca Women?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head dominance, the win probabilities are: Pachuca Women 40%, draw 28%, Toluca Women 32%. Pachuca Women's home advantage (3 wins in 4 home games) keeps them as marginal favorites, but Toluca Women's superior overall record and perfect head-to-head away wins tilt the balance. The draw remains a realistic outcome given the last H2H result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Pachuca Women as the favorite, with average odds around 1.79 for a home win. The draw is priced at about 2.93, and an away win for Toluca Women at 3.82. Based on the stats, the value may lie with Toluca Women or the draw. Our prediction: a closely fought match where Toluca Women could snatch a point or all three, but Pachuca Women's home form cannot be ignored.