Tondela - SCU Torreense prediction 10 October 2026

The Tondela vs SCU Torreense prediction for the Segunda Liga clash on Oct 10 at 11:00 leans towards the home side, who have a 42% chance of winning according to our analysis of the odds, team form and head‑to‑head stats. The match at Estádio João Cardoso sees Tondela looking to extend a three‑game winning run against a Torreense side that has proved tough to beat on this ground.

Team Form

Tondela arrive in excellent shape with three straight victories: a 5‑1 cup thrashing of Imortal, a 2‑0 league success at Portimonense and a 3‑0 home cruise against Porto B. Earlier, they had back‑to‑back defeats—0‑2 at Uniao Leiria and 0‑2 at home to Academica Coimbra—but the latest results indicate a strong turnaround. Their recent form string reads W, W, W, L, L.

SCU Torreense’s last five outings have been mixed. A 2‑1 Europa League win at Lillestrom was followed by a goalless home draw with Leixoes, a 2‑0 away victory at Benfica B, a 0‑3 home loss to Vizela and a 2‑2 draw at Lusitania Lourosa. That sequence—W, D, W, L, D—shows Torreense capable of picking up results on the road but lacking consistency.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The overall head‑to‑head record across six meetings stands at 2 Tondela wins, 3 draws and 1 SCU Torreense victory. The most recent encounter on Mar 1, 2025 finished 2‑2 at this stadium. Crucially, Torreense are unbeaten in their last three visits to Estádio João Cardoso—one win (2‑1 in November 2023) and two draws (2‑2 in March 2025 and 1‑1 in March 2023). That record suggests the away team knows how to frustrate the hosts.

League Table Positions

Tondela sit 10th in the Segunda Liga standings with 9 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; goals 7‑6). At home they rank 8th with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; goals 5‑3). SCU Torreense are not among the top 12 teams listed in the league table, indicating a lower position.

Win Probability: Tondela or SCU Torreense?

Our probability calculation gives Tondela a 42% chance of winning, the draw a 30% chance, and SCU Torreense a 28% chance. The base odds implied a home win probability of 40.2% (after removing the bookmaker margin), but Tondela’s three‑game winning streak and home advantage pushed that figure up. However, Torreense’s strong historical record at this ground—one win and two draws in three visits—limits Tondela’s chances. Therefore, while Tondela are the most likely winners, a draw is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre‑match odds reflect the competitive nature of this fixture. One bookmaker lists Tondela at 2.39, the draw at 3.22 and SCU Torreense at 3.22, which corresponds to the 42‑30‑28 probability split. Others show slightly different numbers, but Tondela are consistently the favourites. Based on the stats, Tondela are expected to edge this, but the head‑to‑head warns that Torreense have a habit of taking points here. A home win is the most likely outcome, though a cautious betting tip would be Tondela on the double chance (win or draw).