Torpedo Kutaisi - Samgurali prediction 14 September 2026

Our Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali prediction for the Erovnuli match on Sep 14, 2026 at 15:00 UTC identifies Torpedo Kutaisi as the favorite with a 40% win probability. Bookmakers agree, pricing the home win at around 1.83 to 2.00 odds. However, recent form and head-to-head stats point to a closely fought contest where a draw is very much on the cards.

Team Form

Torpedo Kutaisi come into this match without a win in their last five outings. They have drawn four and lost one: a 1-1 draw at Gagra, a 1-1 home draw with Dinamo Tbilisi, a 0-2 home loss to Mesakhte Tkibuli, a 2-2 cup draw at home to Dinamo Batumi, and a 2-2 draw at FC Dila Gori. That run has left them struggling for momentum, with just 6 goals scored and 8 conceded in that period.

Samgurali’s recent form is mixed but includes a win. They lost 1-3 at home to FC Dila Gori and 1-2 away to FC Iberia 1999, drew 1-1 at home to Metalurgi Rustavi and 1-1 away to Dila Gori in the Cup, then edged a 4-3 victory at Spaeri. They have scored 8 goals in those five matches but also conceded 10, suggesting defensive frailties.

Head-to-Head Record

In 13 previous meetings, Torpedo Kutaisi have won 5, Samgurali 4, with 4 draws. The last five encounters show Torpedo with a 3-1 advantage, but Samgurali won the most recent clash 2-1 at home in June 2026. Torpedo’s two home wins in this span were emphatic: 6-1 in April 2026 and 6-2 in September 2025.

League Table Positions

Torpedo Kutaisi sit 6th in the Erovnuli table with 33 points from 25 matches (8W, 9D, 8L), just one point above 7th‑placed Samgurali (9W, 5D, 11L, 32 pts). At home, Torpedo have posted a 5-4-4 record with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded. Samgurali’s away form is 4-2-7, with 18 goals scored and 29 conceded, highlighting a clear home advantage for Torpedo.

Win Probability: Torpedo Kutaisi or Samgurali?

Based on the available odds, form, head-to-head data and league positions, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Torpedo Kutaisi win – 40%, draw – 35%, Samgurali win – 25%.

The bookmakers’ average odds (home ~1.90, draw ~2.51, away ~3.80) imply a home win chance of around 44% after removing the margin. We have adjusted that down slightly because Torpedo’s last five results show four draws and no win, while Samgurali arrive with one win in their last five. Torpedo’s strong home H2H scoring record and Samgurali’s leaky away defence keep the hosts as favourites, but the high draw probability reflects Torpedo’s current trend of stalemates. Overall, Torpedo Kutaisi are more likely to win, but a draw cannot be discounted.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali prediction show a clear home favourite. Across the bookmakers in our data, home odds range from 1.83 to 2.00, draw odds from 2.22 to 3.63, and away odds from 3.75 to 4.00. Based on the stats and the win probability analysis, the match prediction is a home win for Torpedo Kutaisi, though the frequency of draws in Torpedo’s recent matches makes the draw a strong alternative.