Torpedo Zhodino - Naftan Novopolotsk prediction 19 October 2026

This Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Novopolotsk prediction covers the Vysshaya League match on Oct 19 at 16:00. Based on the available data, Torpedo Zhodino enters the match as the clear favorite with a high win probability, while Naftan Novopolotsk faces long odds, especially given their poor head-to-head record.

Team Form

Torpedo Zhodino's recent form is a concern, with the team losing four of their last five matches (L, W, L, L, L). Their last outing was a 2-0 away defeat against Maxline Vitebsk on Oct 15. The sole bright spot in this run was a 1-0 victory away at Minsk on Oct 10.

Naftan Novopolotsk shows slightly better recent results with two wins, one draw, and two losses (W, W, D, L, L). They secured a 4-1 home win against Belshina Bobruisk on Oct 10 and a 1-0 away win at Slavia Mozyr on Sep 19. However, their away form remains fragile, having suffered heavy defeats to Minsk and Dinamo Minsk in recent weeks.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two teams is overwhelmingly one-sided. In 9 previous meetings, Torpedo Zhodino has won 8 times, with 1 draw and Naftan Novopolotsk is yet to record a single victory. The most recent match, on May 29, 2026, ended in a 4-0 away win for Torpedo Zhodino. The matches consistently show Torpedo Zhodino's dominance, including a 5-0 home win in 2023.

League Table Positions

Torpedo Zhodino sits 9th in the Vysshaya League overall standings with 30 points from 24 matches (8 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses), scoring 29 goals and conceding 31. Their away form table position is 8th with 17 points from 12 matches. Naftan Novopolotsk's league standing is not detailed in the available data, suggesting they are positioned lower in the table. The 9-point gap and Torpedo Zhodino's superior position provide further evidence for their favorite status in this matchup.

Win Probability: Torpedo Zhodino or Naftan Novopolotsk?

Calculating the win probability using the inverse of the available odds (home 2.00, draw 2.25, away 5.25) and then normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the base probabilities are adjusted with the extreme head-to-head record and current form. Torpedo Zhodino has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Naftan Novopolotsk has a 19% chance. The H2H record of 8 wins for Torpedo Zhodino and zero for Naftan heavily weights the probability, though Torpedo's recent poor form (4 losses in 5) prevents their percentage from being even higher.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Torpedo Zhodino as the strong favorite with odds of 2.00 for a home win. The draw is priced at 2.25, and an away win for Naftan Novopolotsk is available at 5.25. Based on the stats, particularly the dominant head-to-head record and league table advantage, the prediction leans towards a Torpedo Zhodino victory. However, their recent form suggests it may not be a straightforward win, making the draw a tempting option at 2.25.