Monaco - Toulouse prediction 10 October 2026

Monaco vs Toulouse prediction for the Ligue 1 match on Oct 10, 2026, at 19:45. The game takes place at Stade Louis II in Monaco. According to our analysis, Monaco has a 60% probability of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Toulouse has a 15% chance.

Team Form

Monaco's recent form is outstanding. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded four wins and one draw (W,W,D,W,W). They defeated Marseille 2-0 at home, Lens 2-1 at home, and secured a 2-1 away win at PSG. The only blemish was a 1-1 draw at Strasbourg. At home in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco has a perfect record: two wins, four goals scored, and just one conceded.

Toulouse, on the other hand, has managed only one win in their last five outings (W,D,L,D,L). They lost 0-2 at home to Lyon and 0-1 to Lille, drew 2-2 at Brest and 2-2 at Lorient, and beat Le Havre 3-2 at home. Their away form is concerning, with no wins in the last three road games (D,L,D).

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Monaco. In 17 previous meetings, Monaco has won 9, Toulouse 2, with 6 draws. The last five encounters:

• Apr 25, 2026: Toulouse 2-2 Monaco
• Oct 25, 2025: Monaco 1-0 Toulouse
• Mar 7, 2025: Toulouse 1-1 Monaco
• Dec 7, 2024: Monaco 2-0 Toulouse
• Feb 18, 2024: Monaco 1-2 Toulouse

Monaco has won two of the last three home matches against Toulouse.

League Table Positions

Monaco leads Ligue 1 with 13 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 8 goals and conceded only 3. Toulouse is not in the top 12, indicating they are in the lower half of the table. The difference in quality and consistency is stark.

Win Probability: Monaco or Toulouse?

Our win probability calculation starts with the bookmakers' odds. The average odds of 1.59 (home), 2.77 (draw), and 4.68 (away) imply probabilities of 52.2%, 30.0%, and 17.8% after removing the margin. However, Monaco's dominant form, unbeaten home record, and Toulouse's poor away performances lead us to adjust these figures. We give Monaco a 60% chance, the draw 25%, and Toulouse 15%. Home advantage and the head-to-head record further support Monaco as the likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Monaco as the clear favorite. The best available odds are around 1.53 for a home win, with some bookies offering up to 1.65. The draw is priced between 2.38 and 4.40, and an away win ranges from 4.20 to 5.30. Based on all available data, our prediction is a Monaco victory. A clean sheet for the home side is plausible given Toulouse's scoring struggles on the road.