Toulouse - Troyes prediction 25 October 2026
Toulouse
TroyesToulouseTroyes
Le MansToulouseMonacoToulouseToulouseLe HavreLorientToulouseToulouseLOSC LilleBrestToulouseToulouseLyonToulouseHamburger SVElcheToulouseAl Ain Abu DhabiToulouseToulouseReal SociedadToulouseRodez AveyronNantesToulouseToulouseLyonToulouseTroyesTroyesLensTroyesMarseilleAngersTroyesLOSC LilleTroyesTroyesStrasbourgLorientTroyesTroyesParis FCTroyesPanaitolikosAuxerreTroyesTroyesGOAL FCNancyTroyesGrenobleTroyesTroyesStade Lavallois Mayenne FCSaint EtienneTroyes- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 8T. JรธrgensenM
- 15A. DรธnnumM
- 14N. SigurM
- 12C. TapรฉD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 23C. CรกsseresM
- 31N. Schmidt
- 9S. Hidalgo
- 18M. Amougou
- 94I. Diallo
- 7Juliรกn Vignolo
- 37Y. Azizi
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 6A. Vossah
- 1T. Collin
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 17A. MilleM
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 40H. KonatรฉG
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 10M. IfnaouiF
- 29D. KarimM
- 8M. DiopM
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 7K. Diawara
- 26A. Phliponeau
- 11I. Gomis
- 22H. Picard
- 33P. Beach
- 31Noah Donkor
- 36I. Soukouna
- 9J. Le Douaron
ToulouseTroyesToulouseTroyesTroyesToulouseTroyesToulouseTroyesToulouseToulouseTroyesToulouseTroyesToulouseTroyesToulouseTroyesTroyesToulouse| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 |
| 2 |  LOSC Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 14 |
| 5 |  PSG | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 |  Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 |  Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 |
Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction (Oct 25)
Our Toulouse vs Troyes prediction for October 25, 2026, in Ligue 1 sees Toulouse as the clear favorite. The match kicks off at 16:15 at the Stade Municipal in Toulouse, with form, head-to-head record, and home advantage all pointing towards a home win with an estimated 65% probability.
Team Form
Toulouse come into this match in solid shape. Their last five results read W, D, W, D, L. In their most recent outing on October 16, they cruised to a 3-0 away victory at Le Mans. Before that, they earned a creditable 2-2 draw at Monaco. At home against Le Havre on September 19, they secured a 3-2 win. Their only loss in this sequence was a narrow 0-1 defeat to LOSC Lille on September 3.
Troyes, by contrast, are in terrible form with five straight losses: L, L, L, L, L. On October 17, they lost 1-3 at home to Lens. That followed a 0-2 home loss to Marseille. Away days have been equally grim, with a 0-2 defeat at Angers and another 0-2 loss at LOSC Lille. A 2-6 home thrashing by Strasbourg on September 6 underlines their defensive fragility.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Toulouse. In 9 previous meetings, Toulouse have 5 wins, 4 draws, and Troyes have 0 wins. The most recent Ligue 1 clashes ended in dominant Toulouse victories: 4-1 at home on February 1, 2023, and 3-0 away on August 14, 2022. The last time Troyes avoided defeat was a 1-1 draw in Ligue 2 back in February 2021.
League Table Positions
Toulouse sit 11th in the Ligue 1 overall standings with 9 points from 7 matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 12 and conceding 11. Their away form is notably strong, ranking 5th with 6 points from 4 unbeaten games on the road. Troyes are outside the top 12 shown in the table, having lost all 5 recent matches.
Win Probability: Toulouse or Troyes?
Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the win probabilities are as follows: Toulouse has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 23%, and Troyes has a 12% chance. These percentages are derived by normalizing the inverse of the best available odds (1.57 for home, 2.38 for draw, 4.20 for away) to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusting for Toulouse's strong H2H dominance (5-0-4) and Troyes's five-match losing streak. Toulouse are clearly the more likely winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Toulouse as the strong favorite. The best available odds in the data show a home win at 1.57, a draw at 2.38, and an away win for Troyes at 4.20. Based on the stats, a Toulouse win is the most probable match outcome. Their superior form, historical dominance over Troyes, and home advantage make them the justified favorite to take all three points.
Toulouse vs Troyes โ FAQ
- Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?
- Toulouse are very likely to win. Our probability model gives Toulouse a 65% chance of victory, the draw a 23% chance, and Troyes only a 12% chance, based on odds, form, and head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Toulouse?
- Toulouse has a 65% chance of beating Troyes. This high probability reflects their strong head-to-head record (5 wins, 0 losses), Troyes's five consecutive defeats, and the home advantage at the Stade Municipal.
- When is the Toulouse vs Troyes match?
- The match is on October 25, 2026, at 16:15 local time. It is a Ligue 1 fixture hosted at the Stade Municipal in Toulouse, France.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available odds show a Toulouse home win at 1.57, a draw at 2.38, and a Troyes away win at 4.20. These odds confirm bookmakers view Toulouse as the strong favorite.