TPS Turku - Ilves prediction 19 September 2026

The TPS Turku vs Ilves prediction for September 19, 2026, in the Veikkausliiga points to an away win, with Ilves holding a 42% chance of victory based on head-to-head dominance and recent form. TPS Turku has a 33% win probability, while the draw stands at 25%. The match kicks off at 12:00.

Team Form

TPS Turku come into this match with a mixed run of results: one loss, three draws, and one win in their last five outings (L, D, D, D, W). Their most recent match was a 1-0 defeat away to Mariehamn on Sep 12. Ilves, on the other hand, started with two consecutive wins — 3-1 at home to Lahti and 2-0 at home to Jaro — before suffering three straight losses against HJK Helsinki, VPS Vaasa, and Gnistan (W, W, L, L, L).

Head-to-Head Record

Ilves have historically dominated this fixture. Across the last 17 meetings, Ilves have won 15 times, TPS Turku have won twice, and there have been no draws. The most recent clash on Jul 20, 2026, ended in a 3-1 away win for Ilves. In fact, Ilves have won all five of the most recent encounters recorded, including a 1-0 cup victory in May 2026 and a 2-0 friendly win in March 2023.

League Table Positions

In the overall Veikkausliiga standings, TPS Turku sit 8th with 31 points from 22 matches (8 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses). Ilves are 9th with 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses). However, the home/away splits reveal a stark contrast: TPS Turku have the best home record in the league (1st, 23 points from 11 games), while their away form is poor (8th, 8 points). Ilves have a strong 7th-ranked home record but will need to overcome TPS Turku's formidable home advantage.

Win Probability: TPS Turku or Ilves?

Based on the available odds, head-to-head record, and form, we calculate the following win probabilities: TPS Turku 33%, Draw 25%, Ilves 42%. The odds imply a close contest, but Ilves' historical dominance (15 wins in 17 H2H matches) and TPS Turku's recent struggles to secure wins (only one in five) tilt the balance toward the away side. TPS Turku's strong home form keeps them competitive, but Ilves are more likely to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market vary, with home win odds around 2.30–2.64, draw odds between 2.28 and 3.70, and away win odds from 2.45 to 2.90. The market sees this as a relatively open match, but the best available odds suggest Ilves are slight underdogs despite our probability model favoring them. Our TPS Turku vs Ilves prediction is an away win, based on the overwhelming head-to-head record and TPS Turku's difficulty converting draws into victories.