Lahti - TPS Turku prediction 17 October 2026

The Lahti vs TPS Turku prediction for the Veikkausliiga clash on Oct 17, 2026, at 12:00 sees the home side as the clear favorite. Based on recent form and head-to-head data, Lahti has a 50% chance of winning, while TPS Turku struggles with just an 18% probability of an away victory.

Team Form

Lahti's last five matches show an upward trend: a 0-1 loss at Seinajoen JK, a 1-1 home draw with Jaro, a 1-3 away defeat against Ilves, a 2-1 home win over Mariehamn, and a 1-0 away victory at VPS Vaasa. That's two wins, one draw, and two losses, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded.

TPS Turku's form is poor. They lost three in a row: 0-1 at home to Jaro, 0-3 at home to Ilves, and 0-1 at Mariehamn. Then they drew 0-0 at home with Seinajoen JK and 1-1 at Gnistan. In those five games, TPS managed just 1 goal and conceded 6, failing to win any.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time H2H record across 21 meetings shows Lahti with 8 wins, 9 draws, and TPS Turku with 4 wins. The last five encounters paint a similar picture of Lahti dominance:

• Jun 23, 2026: Lahti 0-0 TPS Turku (Veikkausliiga)
• Apr 10, 2026: TPS Turku 2-1 Lahti (Veikkausliiga)
• Jan 31, 2026: Lahti 5-1 TPS Turku (Ykkoscup)
• Oct 18, 2025: TPS Turku 3-3 Lahti (Ykkosliiga)
• Jul 14, 2025: Lahti 2-2 TPS Turku (Ykkosliiga)

Lahti has not lost to TPS in the last five H2H meetings (2 wins, 3 draws).

League Table Positions

In the Veikkausliiga, Lahti sits 7th with 32 points (9 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses; goals 26–19). TPS Turku is 8th with 31 points (8 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses; goals 28–23). At home, Lahti has a 5-3-3 record (18 points), while TPS Turku's away form is the worst among the top eight: just 1 win, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with 10 goals scored and 14 conceded.

Win Probability: Lahti or TPS Turku?

Lahti has a 50% chance of winning this match, the draw probability is 32%, and TPS Turku's win chance is only 18%. These probabilities combine the home/away records (Lahti's solid home win rate vs TPS's extremely poor away record), recent form (Lahti improving, TPS winless in five), and H2H trends (Lahti unbeaten in last five meetings). The numbers clearly point toward a home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

No odds are available in the provided data, but based on the stats bookmakers would install Lahti as the clear favorite. Given TPS Turku's scoring drought — just 1 goal in five games — and Lahti's compact defense (only 19 goals conceded all season), a low-scoring home win looks the most likely outcome. A 1-0 or 2-0 result for Lahti fits the statistical profile.