Mariehamn - TPS Turku prediction 12 September 2026

The TPS Turku vs Mariehamn prediction for this Veikkausliiga clash on Sep 12 at 14:00 points towards a competitive encounter where the visitors hold a slight edge. Based on recent form and league standings, TPS Turku has a 40% chance of winning, while Mariehamn sits at 30%, with a draw at 30%.

Team Form

Mariehamn enters this match with a mixed run of results, recording three wins and two losses in their last five outings. They secured a 2-0 home victory against Jaro on Aug 31, followed by an impressive 4-2 away win at KuPS on Aug 23. Another 2-0 home win over Seinajoen JK on Aug 15 showcased their capability, though defeats to Ilves (2-0 away on Aug 09) and TPS Turku (3-0 away on Aug 01) highlight inconsistency.

TPS Turku arrives unbeaten in four of their last five matches, with two draws and two wins. They drew 1-1 away at Gnistan on Aug 31 and played out a 0-0 home stalemate with Inter Turku on Aug 23. A 3-1 away victory at VPS Vaasa on Aug 14 and a 1-1 draw at KuPS on Aug 09 demonstrate resilience, while the 3-0 home win over Mariehamn on Aug 01 underlines their potential in this fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is heavily skewed towards draws. In 18 previous meetings, Mariehamn has won 2, TPS Turku has won 4, and 12 matches have ended in a draw. The most recent encounter saw TPS Turku dominate with a 3-0 home win on Aug 01, 2026. Prior to that, the teams drew 1-1 on Apr 04, 2026, and 1-1 in the Ykkoscup on Feb 11, 2026. A 2-2 draw in the Cup on May 28, 2025, and a 1-1 Veikkausliiga draw on Sep 14, 2020, further emphasize the frequency of stalemates.

League Table Positions

TPS Turku sits 8th in the Veikkausliiga overall standings with 31 points from 22 matches, having won 8, drawn 7, and lost 7. They have scored 28 goals and conceded 23. Mariehamn is 12th with 14 points, winning just 3, drawing 5, and losing 14, with 17 goals scored and 43 conceded. The home and away splits are stark: TPS Turku boasts the best home record in the league (1st, 23 points from 11 games), while Mariehamn's away form is not listed in the top 8, indicating struggles on the road.

Win Probability: TPS Turku or Mariehamn?

Based on the available odds, form, and standings, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: TPS Turku has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Mariehamn has a 30% chance. The odds imply a close contest, but TPS Turku's superior league position, dominant home record, and recent 3-0 head-to-head victory give them the edge. Mariehamn's poor overall campaign and likely travel difficulties reduce their chances, though the high historical draw rate keeps that outcome very much in play.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied odds for this match. The 1X2 market shows home win odds ranging from 1.71 to 2.45, draws from 2.30 to 3.60, and away wins from 1.76 to 2.88. This fluctuation reflects the unpredictable nature of the fixture. Based on the stats, TPS Turku is the more likely winner, but the value may lie in the draw given the 12 stalemates in 18 H2H meetings. Our prediction: a tight match, with TPS Turku to edge it or a draw.