Juvenes / Dogana - Tre Penne prediction 27 October 2026

The Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana prediction for the San Marino Cup clash on Sep 08 at 18:45 points to a home win. Based on the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, Tre Penne enters this match as the clear favorite with a 62% win probability, while Juvenes / Dogana faces an uphill battle at just 14%.

Team Form

Tre Penne comes into this cup tie in excellent shape. Their last five results show four wins and one draw (W, W, W, D, W). Most recently, they secured a solid 2-0 home victory against SS Cosmos in the Campionato on Sep 04. Earlier, they beat San Giovanni 3-2 away and crushed Fiorentino 4-1 in a friendly. The only slight blemish was a 1-1 friendly draw with Sammaurese, but overall, the team is scoring freely and conceding little.

Juvenes / Dogana's form is far less convincing. Their last five matches produced one win, two draws, and two losses (L, W, L, D, D). They lost 2-1 away to AC Libertas on Sep 05, despite a 4-0 home thrashing of Faetano just before that. Defeats to Virtus (0-2) and a pair of draws against Virtus (0-0) and AC Libertas (1-1) highlight inconsistency, especially on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors Tre Penne. In the last 10 meetings, Tre Penne has 6 wins, Juvenes / Dogana has 2, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent encounter on Feb 28, 2026, ended in a 3-1 home win for Tre Penne in the Campionato. However, the last cup meeting between these sides on Dec 10, 2025, saw Juvenes / Dogana win 1-0 at home. Another cup clash on Nov 26, 2025, finished 1-1. Tre Penne has won three of the last five H2H matches, with the other two being a draw and a Juvenes / Dogana win.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the Campionato, San Marino's top flight. While exact table positions are not provided in the data, Tre Penne's dominant H2H record and superior recent form suggest they are higher in the standings. Juvenes / Dogana's inconsistent results indicate a mid-to-lower table position compared to Tre Penne, who regularly contests for top spots.

Win Probability: Tre Penne or Juvenes / Dogana?

Tre Penne has a 62% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Juvenes / Dogana has a 14% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the best available odds (1.36 for a home win, 4.30 for the draw, 6.40 for an away win), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The raw implied probabilities were adjusted upward for Tre Penne due to their dominant H2H record (6 wins in 10), excellent recent form (4W, 1D), and home advantage. Juvenes / Dogana's probability was downgraded because of their poor away form and losing record in this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Tre Penne as the strong favorite. The best home win odds are 1.36, while a draw is offered at 4.30, and an away win for Juvenes / Dogana is as high as 6.50. These odds reflect the gulf in quality and current momentum between the sides. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Tre Penne victory. The H2H history shows high-scoring affairs when Tre Penne hosts, and with their current attacking form, a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline seems plausible.