Tristan Suarez Reserves - CA San Telmo Reserves prediction 16 September 2026

Tristan Suarez Reserves vs CA San Telmo Reserves prediction for the Primera Nacional. Reserve League match on Sep 16, 2026, at 15:00. Our analysis gives Tristan Suarez Reserves a 35% win probability, a draw at 40%, and CA San Telmo Reserves a 25% chance. The bookmakers also see the draw as the most likely outcome.

Team Form

Tristan Suarez Reserves

The home side has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W, L, D, W, W). Their recent results show consistency, with victories in three of the four matches prior to this fixture.

• Sep 10: CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves 0-2 Tristan Suarez Reserves (W)
• Sep 03: Los Andes Reserves 1-0 Tristan Suarez Reserves (L)
• Aug 27: Tristan Suarez Reserves 0-0 CA San Telmo Reserves (D)
• Aug 20: All Boys Reserves 0-2 Tristan Suarez Reserves (W)
• Aug 13: Tristan Suarez Reserves 1-0 Almirante Brown Reserves (W)

They have scored in four of those five matches and kept three clean sheets, demonstrating a solid defensive foundation.

CA San Telmo Reserves

The visitors come into this match with a mixed run of results: two wins, two draws, and one loss (L, D, D, W, W). After a home defeat, they have been unbeaten in four games, including two away wins.

• Sep 02: CA San Telmo Reserves 0-1 Acassuso Reserves (L)
• Aug 27: Tristan Suarez Reserves 0-0 CA San Telmo Reserves (D)
• Aug 19: CA San Telmo Reserves 2-2 Defensores de Belgrano Reserves (D)
• Aug 13: Los Andes Reserves 0-3 CA San Telmo Reserves (W)
• Aug 05: Colegiales Reserves 0-1 CA San Telmo Reserves (W)

They have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, highlighting their defensive strength on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice in the Primera Nacional. Reserve League, both at this venue. Tristan Suarez Reserves remain unbeaten with one win and one draw. The most recent encounter on Aug 27, 2026, ended in a 0-0 stalemate. The earlier clash on Apr 24, 2025, saw the home team cruise to a 3-0 victory. The head-to-head record clearly favors the home side, who have yet to concede a goal to CA San Telmo Reserves at home in this competition.

Win Probability: Tristan Suarez Reserves or CA San Telmo Reserves?

We calculate the win probabilities based on the latest odds, recent form, and head-to-head data. The raw odds implied a home win chance of about 31%, a draw at 45%, and an away win at 24%. After adjusting for Tristan Suarez Reserves' stronger recent form (3 wins in 5) and their unbeaten H2H record at home, we raise the home win probability to 35% and lower the draw to 40%. The away win remains at 25%. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a draw, but if there is a winner, Tristan Suarez Reserves are the more probable side.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following odds for this fixture: a home win is priced between 2.80 and 3.00, a draw at 1.95–2.05, and an away win at 3.60–3.75. The low odds on the draw confirm that the betting market expects a tight contest. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow home victory. Tristan Suarez Reserves' home advantage and solid H2H record give them the edge, but CA San Telmo Reserves' recent away form cannot be ignored. A low-scoring affair is likely, with under 2.5 goals a plausible outcome.