Alta - Tromso prediction 16 September 2026

The Alta vs Tromso prediction for this Norwegian Cup Round of 16 tie on Sep 16, 2026, points to a likely away win. Our probability model, built on form, head-to-head record and the gulf in league standings, gives Tromso a 60% chance to win, a 25% chance of a draw, and Alta just a 15% probability of causing an upset.

Team Form: Alta and Tromso Recent Results

Alta approach this cup match in mixed form. Their last five outings (all competitions) read L, D, W, L, L. The sole victory was a 4-2 away win at Lillestrom II in the 3rd Division on May 30. They also picked up a 1-1 draw at Skjetten on Jun 20. However, heavy defeats reveal defensive frailties: a 1-22 friendly loss to Sassuolo, a 0-2 loss at Skedsmo, and a 2-3 reverse at Stromsgodset 2. Alta have conceded in four of those five matches and look vulnerable against higher-quality attacks.

Tromso, despite playing in the Eliteserien and UEFA Conference League qualifiers, come into this tie with a disappointing recent record: L, L, D, L, D. Their two draws – both 0-0 – came at home against Sarpsborg 08 and Brighton (Conference League). The losses were heavy: 3-5 at Rosenborg, 0-2 at Kristiansund, and 0-4 at Brighton. While Tromso’s opponents are far stronger than Alta’s, the fact they have failed to score in three of those five games is a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meetings between Alta and Tromso came in the 2018 Cup, where they played three times. Each match ended in a stalemate: 0-0 on May 9 in two of the fixtures and another 0-0 on the same date in the third. That’s a total of three draws from three encounters, and remarkably no goals scored by either side. This history underlines how cagey this cup fixture could become once again.

League Comparison

No formal league table data is provided in our source, but the difference in competition level is stark. Tromso play their regular football in Norway’s top flight, the Eliteserien, facing clubs like Rosenborg, while Alta compete in the 3rd Division – three tiers lower. This gap in day-to-day opposition quality heavily shapes the win probability calculation.

Win Probability: Alta or Tromso?

After digesting all available data, here is the mandatory probability breakdown:

• Alta win: 15%
• Draw: 25%
• Tromso win: 60%

Our reasoning: Tromso’s superior league status is the dominant factor – they train and compete against much stronger sides week in, week out. However, their poor recent form (no win in five) and the three 0-0 H2H draws prevent a higher probability. Alta’s 15% reflects the possibility of a cup shock, especially if Tromso fail to score early. Overall, Tromso are clearly the more likely winners, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds for Alta vs Tromso are currently listed in our data. Once published, Tromso are expected to be strong favorites, likely priced around 1.55–1.65 for an away win. Based purely on the stats and the gulf in divisions, the betting tip is a Tromso victory. However, given the goalless H2H history and Tromso’s recent scoring struggles, a wager on under 2.5 total goals could offer value. The final Alta vs Tromso prediction is an away win, but expect a tight, low-scoring cup affair.