Fredrikstad - Tromso prediction 11 October 2026
Fredrikstad
Tromso
MoldeFredrikstadVikingFredrikstadFredrikstadTromsoSandefjordFredrikstadValerengaFredrikstadStjordals BlinkFredrikstadFredrikstadSarpsborg 08FredrikstadBodo/GlimtLillestromFredrikstadEidsvold IFFredrikstadFredrikstadKristiansundIK StartFredrikstadFredrikstadSandefjordRosenborgFredrikstadBodo/GlimtFredrikstadVikingTromsoTromsoKFUM OsloFredrikstadTromsoTromsoHam-KamAltaTromsoRosenborgTromsoKristiansundTromsoTromsoSarpsborg 08BrightonTromsoTromsoBrightonMoldeTromsoTromsoCFR ClujCFR ClujTromsoAalesundTromsoHam-KamTromsoFredrikstadTromsoTromsoFredrikstadTromsoFredrikstadFredrikstadTromso| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 58:21 | +37 | 56 |
| 3 |  Molde | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 57:36 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 46:31 | +15 | 40 |
| 5 | Tromso | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 43:34 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 35:33 | +2 | 39 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 30:35 | -5 | 31 |
| 8 |  KFUM Oslo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30:39 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 |  Brann | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42:40 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 |  Valerenga | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 39:46 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29:41 | -12 | 29 |
| 12 |  Ham-Kam | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 33:51 | -18 | 26 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 22:31 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 40:53 | -13 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 25:49 | -24 | 20 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 26:54 | -28 | 19 |
Fredrikstad vs Tromso Prediction (Oct 11)
In the Fredrikstad vs Tromso prediction for this Eliteserien match on Oct 11, 2026, at 13:30, Tromso enters as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Fredrikstad has a 27% chance, and the draw stands at 28%.
Team Form
Fredrikstad's last five home matches have produced one win, three draws, and one loss. They drew 0-0 with Sandefjord, 1-1 with Valerenga, and 1-1 with Sarpsborg 08, beat Stjordals Blink 1-0 in the Cup, and lost 1-2 to Bodo/Glimt. Tromso's last five away games show two wins, one draw, and two losses. They beat Ham-Kam 3-2 and Alta 2-1 in the Cup, lost 3-5 to Rosenborg and 0-2 to Kristiansund, and drew 0-0 with Sarpsborg 08.
Head-to-Head Record
Tromso has dominated the recent head-to-head series. In the last three Eliteserien meetings, Tromso won twice and drew once. Fredrikstad has not beaten Tromso in any of those matches. The most recent clash on Mar 15, 2026, saw Tromso win 4-0 at home, while the previous meeting at Fredrikstad Stadion ended 0-1 to Tromso on Jun 29, 2025.
League Table Positions
Tromso sits 3rd in the Eliteserien table with 38 points from 21 matches, 10 points ahead of 8th-placed Fredrikstad (28 points). At home, Fredrikstad ranks 7th (5W, 2D, 3L, 13:11 goals), while Tromso away is 4th (4W, 2D, 4L, 19:20 goals). The 10-point gap and higher standing underline Tromso's stronger overall campaign.
Win Probability: Fredrikstad or Tromso?
Fredrikstad has a 27% chance of winning, the draw is 28%, and Tromso has a 45% chance. These probabilities started from the inverse of the first available odds (home 2.85, draw 3.50, away 2.49), which were normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. Then we adjusted for Tromso's better league position, dominant H2H record (undefeated in last 3, no wins for Fredrikstad), and slightly superior recent away form. Home advantage and Fredrikstad's series of draws keep their win probability close to the draw, but the overall picture clearly favors Tromso.
Odds & Match Prediction
The odds from one bookmaker show Fredrikstad to win at 2.85, a draw at 3.50, and Tromso to win at 2.49. These numbers already mark Tromso as the narrow favorite. After factoring in form, head-to-head, and league position, we lean toward an away win. Tromso is more likely to take all three points, but Fredrikstadโs habit of drawing at home cannot be ignored. A close match with a possible 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline for the visitors is the most probable outcome.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso โ FAQ
- Who will win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
- Based on our analysis, Tromso has a 45% chance of winning, while Fredrikstad sits at 27% and the draw at 28%. Tromso is the clear favorite, supported by their higher league position and strong head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Tromso?
- Tromso holds a 45% win probability. This figure reflects their superior Eliteserien standing (3rd vs 8th), an unbeaten run in the last three meetings with Fredrikstad (W2 D1), and a respectable away form with four wins in ten away matches.
- When is the Fredrikstad vs Tromso match?
- The match takes place on Oct 11, 2026, at 13:30. It is an Eliteserien (Norway) fixture to be played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.
- What are the odds for the match?
- From one bookmaker, the 1X2 odds are: Fredrikstad win at 2.85, draw at 3.50, and Tromso win at 2.49. Other bookmakers show similar markets, with Tromso consistently priced as the slight favorite.