Truro City - Merthyr Town prediction 22 September 2026

The Truro City vs Merthyr Town prediction points to a home-favored FA Cup tie on September 22, 2026, at 19:45. Our win probability analysis gives Truro City a 45% chance to win, the draw 35%, and Merthyr Town a 20% chance. Bookmakers align with this, pricing the home side as short as 1.65.

Team Form

Truro City head into this cup replay with mixed recent results. Across their last five outings—the FA Cup draw at Merthyr Town and four National League South matches—they have registered one win, two draws, and two losses (D L D W L). After that 1-1 cup stalemate, they lost 0-1 at home to Salisbury City, drew 1-1 with Walton & Hersham, beat Chesham United 3-1 at home, and fell 0-1 away to Dorking Wanderers. The single win in that sequence and only three goals scored in the last four games raise questions about their attacking sharpness.

Merthyr Town’s form line reads D D W W L over the same span. The Martyrs most recently drew 1-1 at home to Truro City in the FA Cup, followed a goalless draw at Scarborough Athletic in the National League North, a 1-0 win at Chester, a 2-1 home success over Macclesfield Town, and a 1-2 defeat at Buxton. Both clubs share a 1-1 draw just three days ago, making this replay finely balanced.

Head-to-Head Record

In three previous meetings since 2022, Truro City hold a clear edge: 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 Merthyr Town victories. The most recent encounter on Sep 19, 2026, ended 1-1 at Merthyr’s ground. The only prior meeting at Truro City’s stadium was a 0-0 draw in January 2023, while the first clash in March 2022 saw Truro City win 3-1 at home. Merthyr Town have yet to beat Truro City, a psychological advantage for the hosts.

Win Probability: Truro City or Merthyr Town?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Truro City win – 45%, Draw – 35%, Merthyr Town win – 20%. The bookmakers’ average implied odds (1.66 for a home win, 2.39 for a draw, 4.26 for an away win) give Truro City about a 48% raw chance. However, Truro’s inconsistent spell (only one victory in five) and Merthyr’s slightly superior recent results temper the home supremacy, boosting the draw likelihood. Historical dominance by Truro City at home still makes them the most probable winner, but a stalemate is a strong second option.

Odds & Match Prediction

Leading bookmakers price a Truro City victory between 1.65 and 1.67, the draw at 2.38–2.40, and a Merthyr Town success at 4.20–4.33. These odds reflect firm confidence in the home side. Our Truro City vs Merthyr Town prediction sides with a home win, but we underline the real risk of a draw after the 1-1 first game and Merthyr’s resilient away performances. The stats suggest a low-scoring affair, with a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Truro City the most probable match outcomes.