TSC Backa Topola - FK Graficar Beograd prediction 5 October 2026

TSC Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd prediction for the Prva Liga match on October 5, 2026, at 17:00 local time. Based on the latest odds and team stats, TSC Backa Topola is the strong favorite with a 59% win probability, while FK Graficar Beograd faces an uphill battle at just 12%.

Team Form

TSC Backa Topola come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W2 D3). They drew 2-2 away at Borac Cacak, 0-0 at home to Dubocica, and 1-1 at Proleter Zrenjanin, before beating Loznica 4-0 at home and Vozdovac 3-2 away. The team has scored 10 goals and conceded 5 in that span, showing solid attacking form but occasional defensive lapses.

FK Graficar Beograd have been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five. They beat Teleoptik 4-1 at home and FK Bor 1919 3-0 at home, but lost 0-1 at Metalac, 1-4 at Vrsac, and 1-2 at Borac Cacak. Away from home, they have lost three of their last four, conceding 8 goals in those defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times, with TSC Backa Topola winning twice and FK Graficar Beograd once. The most recent clash was a Cup tie on October 29, 2025, where Graficar won 2-0 at home. Before that, TSC won friendlies 2-1 (February 2023) and 4-2 (July 2022). The overall head-to-head record slightly favours the home side, but the last competitive meeting went to Graficar.

League Table Positions

TSC Backa Topola sit 4th in the Prva Liga with 21 points from 11 matches (5 wins, 6 draws, 0 losses). They are one of only two unbeaten teams in the league. At home, they have 2 wins and 4 draws from 6 games, scoring 9 and conceding just 4. FK Graficar Beograd are not in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating a lower league position. Their away form has been poor, as seen in recent results.

Win Probability: TSC Backa Topola or FK Graficar Beograd?

Based on the bookmakers' odds and team performance, TSC Backa Topola has a 59% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and FK Graficar Beograd has a 12% chance. These probabilities are derived from the inverse of the average odds (home 1.29, draw 2.62, away 6.50), normalized to remove the margin, and adjusted for TSC's unbeaten league record, home advantage, and Graficar's poor away form. TSC are clearly the more likely winners, but their recent three draws suggest a stalemate is a real possibility.

TSC Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd Prediction & Odds

The best available odds see a home win priced between 1.20 and 1.29, a draw between 2.62 and 5.55, and an away win between 6.50 and 7.50. Bookmakers overwhelmingly favour TSC Backa Topola. Our match prediction: based on the stats, TSC Backa Topola are expected to win, but the value may lie in the draw given their recent sequence of stalemates. FK Graficar Beograd's away struggles make an away win highly unlikely.