FK Progress Super Nova - Tukums 2000 prediction 10 September 2026

Our FK Progress Super Nova vs Tukums 2000 prediction for the Virsliga encounter on Sep 10, 2026, points towards a home victory. FK Progress Super Nova holds a 50% chance of winning, while the draw is at 28% and Tukums 2000 trails at 22%.

Team Form

FK Progress Super Nova approach this match with a mixed recent record: W, D, D, L, W in their last five outings. They started with a 2-0 home win over Grobinas SC, then lost 1-2 to Liepajas Metalurgs, drew 0-0 at home to BFC Daugavpils, and took a 1-1 draw at Auda before a 1-0 away victory at Jelgava on Sep 05. That sequence shows two wins, two draws, and one loss, indicating a side that has been hard to beat but not always dominant.

Tukums 2000 have a W, L, L, L, W form line. They beat Liepajas Metalurgs 2-1 away on Aug 02, then lost three in a row — 0-2 at BFC Daugavpils, 0-3 at Auda, and a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Jelgava — before edging Ogre United 2-1 at home on Sep 05. With only two wins in five, both against teams in the bottom half, the visitors’ form raises concerns.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head leans slightly towards Tukums 2000 (7 wins to FK Progress Super Nova’s 6, with 5 draws), but the most recent meetings tell a different story. In the last five clashes, FK Progress Super Nova have won three, with one draw and one Tukums victory. The most recent encounter on Jul 01, 2026, saw FK Progress Super Nova win 2-1 away. The May 11, 2026, fixture ended 1-1 at this venue, and the Mar 22, 2026, match again went 2-1 to FK Progress Super Nova. The previous two games were split: a 2-1 Tukums home win in Sep 2025 and a 1-0 FK Progress Super Nova home win in Jul 2025. The recent trend clearly favours the home side.

League Table Positions

In the Virsliga standings, FK Progress Super Nova sit 6th with 32 points from 27 matches (9 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses). Tukums 2000 are 9th with 23 points from 29 games (5 wins, 8 draws, 16 losses). The home team holds a 9-point advantage despite having played two fewer matches. However, FK Progress Super Nova’s home form has been a weakness: calculated from overall and away records, they have only 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses at home, scoring 14 and conceding 24. Tukums 2000’s away record is even worse — 0 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses, with 16 goals scored and 36 conceded. Both sides struggle on their respective home/away grounds, but the home team still has the statistical edge.

Win Probability: FK Progress Super Nova or Tukums 2000?

Based on recent form, head-to-head trends, and league positions, we calculate the probabilities as follows:

• FK Progress Super Nova win: 50%
• Draw: 28%
• Tukums 2000 win: 22%

FK Progress Super Nova’s three victories in the last five H2H meetings, combined with a higher league rank and a slightly better form run, justify their status as favourites. Tukums 2000’s dreadful away record (0 wins all season) and three defeats in their last four road trips heavily reduce their chances. The draw receives a solid 28% because both sides have shown vulnerability — the hosts rarely win at home, and the visitors are poor travellers — so a stalemate is a realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, no bookmaker odds are available for this FK Progress Super Nova vs Tukums 2000 fixture. When odds are released, the home side is expected to be priced as the favourite. Our FK Progress Super Nova vs Tukums 2000 prediction is a home win, but the draw cannot be ruled out. Based on the stats, the most likely scoreline could be 1-0 or 1-1, given the low-scoring nature of recent meetings between these two. For betting tips, a cautious approach might be to back FK Progress Super Nova in the draw no bet market, or look for under 2.5 goals, as the last five H2H games have produced only 8 goals total (1.6 per match).