Tulsa Roughnecks - New Mexico United prediction 1 October 2026
Tulsa Roughnecks
New Mexico United
Colorado Springs SwitchbacksTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksOakland RootsLexington SCTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksSacramento RepublicTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedEl Paso LocomotiveTulsa RoughnecksBrooklyn FCTulsa RoughnecksPhoenix RisingTulsa RoughnecksSan Antonio FCTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksRhode Island FCOrange County Blue StarTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksDetroit CityTulsa RoughnecksSacramento RepublicPittsburgh RiverhoundsTulsa RoughnecksEl Paso LocomotiveNew Mexico UnitedSan Antonio FCNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedMonterey BayNew Mexico UnitedPhoenix RisingTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedSacramento RepublicColorado Springs SwitchbacksNew Mexico UnitedBirmingham LegionNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedIndy ElevenLas Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedSan Antonio FCNew Mexico UnitedLexington SCLoudoun UnitedNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksMonterey BayNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico United| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52:26 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56:35 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45:34 | +11 | 52 |
| 4 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42:28 | +14 | 51 |
| 5 |  Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 34:21 | +13 | 51 |
| 6 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48:38 | +10 | 50 |
| 7 |  Lexington SC | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57:39 | +18 | 48 |
| 8 |  Louisville Cardinals | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | +8 | 47 |
| 9 |  Colorado Springs Switchbacks | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44:38 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33:30 | +3 | 45 |
| 11 |  San Antonio FC | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32:30 | +2 | 45 |
| 12 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 35:33 | +2 | 43 |
| 13 | Tulsa Roughnecks | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34:31 | +3 | 43 |
| 14 |  Rhode Island FC | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:33 | +9 | 42 |
| 15 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45:46 | -1 | 40 |
| 16 |  Orange County Blue Star | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39:49 | -10 | 39 |
| 17 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39:40 | -1 | 38 |
| 18 |  Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | -10 | 36 |
| 19 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41:48 | -7 | 36 |
| 20 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 35:41 | -6 | 34 |
| 21 |  Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 31 |
| 22 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 40:46 | -6 | 30 |
| 23 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32:52 | -20 | 24 |
| 24 |  Brooklyn FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 34:63 | -29 | 21 |
| 25 |  Sporting Jax | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 32:78 | -46 | 14 |
Tulsa Roughnecks vs New Mexico United Prediction (Oct 1)
The Tulsa Roughnecks vs New Mexico United prediction points to a closely contested USL Championship match on October 1, 2026. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head numbers, Tulsa Roughnecks enters as a slight favorite with a 44% win probability, while a draw is at 33% and a New Mexico United victory at 23%.
Team Form
Tulsa Roughnecks (last 5 matches, most recent first: D, D, L, D, W) have drawn three of their last four, including a 1-1 at El Paso Locomotive and a 2-2 at Brooklyn FC. Their lone win was a 1-0 home victory over Rhode Island FC, while they lost 1-2 at Phoenix Rising. New Mexico United (L, D, D, D, W) suffered a 2-3 home loss to Sacramento Republic after back-to-back draws: a 0-0 at Colorado Springs and a high-scoring 4-4 at Birmingham Legion. Their last road win was a 2-1 at Las Vegas Lights.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last five meetings across all venues, the home side won three times, with one draw and one away win. When playing at Tulsa, the Roughnecks have an unbeaten record against New Mexico United (2 wins, 1 draw), including a 3-0 victory in November 2025 and a 5-2 win in August 2025. The most recent encounter (August 2026) saw New Mexico United win 1-0 at their own ground.
League Table Positions
New Mexico United sits 4th in the overall USL Championship standings with 43 points from 25 games (12W, 7D, 6L), while Tulsa Roughnecks are 12th with 38 points (10W, 8D, 7L). At home, Tulsa has a solid defensive record (7 goals conceded in 12 matches) but have scored only 12 times. New Mexico Unitedโs away form is respectable: 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in 12 road trips, with 18 goals scored and 14 conceded.
Win Probability: Tulsa Roughnecks or New Mexico United?
We calculate the win probabilities using the average bookmaker odds (home 1.91, draw 2.55, away 3.70) normalized to remove the overround, then adjusted for Tulsaโs home H2H edge and both teamsโ slightly draw-heavy recent form. This gives Tulsa Roughnecks a 44% chance to win, a draw 33%, and New Mexico United 23%. The high draw probability (33%) reflects both sidesโ inability to close out games recently.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Tulsa as the favorite, with home win odds ranging from 1.85 to 1.95, the draw between 2.22 and 3.75, and an away win priced from 3.45 to 4.00. The average odds imply a 44% implied probability for a Tulsa victory. Based on the stats, Tulsa Roughnecks to win is the most likely outcome, but the high frequency of draws in both teamsโ recent form makes the draw a very real possibility. Our prediction: Tulsa Roughnecks to edge it, but a cautious bettor might consider the draw no bet market.
Tulsa Roughnecks vs New Mexico United โ FAQ
- Who will win Tulsa Roughnecks vs New Mexico United?
- Based on the analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head record, Tulsa Roughnecks has a 44% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 33%, and New Mexico United at 23%. So, Tulsa is the most likely winner, but the draw probability is also significant.
- What is the win probability for Tulsa Roughnecks?
- Tulsa Roughnecks has a 44% win probability. This is derived from the average bookmaker odds of 1.91, adjusted for their strong home H2H record (two wins and a draw in three home meetings) and a solid home defense that has conceded only 7 goals in 12 matches this season.
- When is the Tulsa Roughnecks vs New Mexico United match?
- The match is scheduled for October 1, 2026, at 01:00 (local time). It is a USL Championship fixture, the second tier of professional soccer in the USA.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmakers offer odds for a Tulsa Roughnecks win between 1.85 and 1.95, the draw at 2.22โ3.75, and a New Mexico United away win at 3.45โ4.00. The average market odds imply a home win probability of about 44%.