Turan Yaypan - Aral Samali PFK prediction 21 September 2026

Our Turan Yaypan vs Aral Samali PFK prediction for the Uzbekistan Pro League match on Sep 21, 2026, at 14:30 points firmly towards an away victory. Based on the latest odds, team form, and league table, Aral Samali PFK has a 55% chance of winning, while Turan Yaypan holds just a 20% probability and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Turan Yaypan's recent results show inconsistency. In their last five matches they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses (D, L, L, W, W). They drew 0-0 at Gazalkent, lost 1-4 at home to Shurtan Guzar, and fell 1-3 at Jayhun Nukus before recovering with a 2-0 home win over Pakhtakor Tashkent II and a 2-1 victory at PFC Terdu. That run produced 7 points from a possible 15.

Aral Samali PFK enters the match in stronger form. Their last five outings (W, D, W, L, D) include a 2-0 home win against Lochin, a 1-1 draw at FarDu Fergana, a 1-0 home win over Kattaqorgon, a 1-2 loss at Olimpik Mobiuz, and a 0-0 draw at Respublika FA. With 8 points from the last five games and only one defeat, the league leaders are clearly the more reliable side.

Head-to-Head Record

There has been only one previous meeting between these teams. On May 6, 2026, Aral Samali PFK hosted Turan Yaypan and cruised to a 5-1 victory. That result gives Aral Samali PFK a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head record, with a dominant goal difference of +4.

League Table Positions

The standings underline the gulf between the two sides. Aral Samali PFK sits 1st in the Pro League with 46 points from 19 matches (14 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 37 goals and conceded only 11, boasting the best defensive record in the division. Turan Yaypan is 10th with 22 points (6 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses) and a goal difference of -11 (21 scored, 32 conceded).

Aral Samali PFK has been perfect at home (10 wins from 10), but their away form is also impressive: 4 wins, 4 draws, and only 1 loss in 9 road games. Turan Yaypan's home form is less convincing; in their most recent home fixtures they lost heavily to Shurtan Guzar (1-4) and beat Pakhtakor Tashkent II (2-0).

Win Probability: Turan Yaypan or Aral Samali PFK?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin and adjusting for form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are: Turan Yaypan 20%, draw 25%, Aral Samali PFK 55%. The away side's top-of-the-table status, superior defensive record, and strong away form make them the clear favorite. Turan Yaypan's home advantage is unlikely to bridge the 24-point gap between the teams.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Aral Samali PFK. The available 1X2 odds range from 4.20 to 5.00 for a home win, 2.30 to 3.70 for the draw, and 1.62 to 2.10 for an away win. These prices reflect the visitors' dominance in the league and the head-to-head result. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an Aral Samali PFK victory, with a low-scoring affair possible given their defensive solidity.