Tusker - Kakamega Homeboyz prediction 11 September 2026
Tusker
Kakamega Homeboyz
Singida Black Stars SCTuskerTuskerSingida Black Stars SCUlinzi StarsTuskerUlinzi StarsTuskerTuskerAl Ahli Wad MedaniTuskerKakamega HomeboyzAl Ahli Wad MedaniTuskerUlinzi StarsTuskerTuskerKenya Police FCTuskerAps Bomet FCUlinzi StarsTuskerBandariTuskerTuskerKenya Commercial BankNairobi UnitedTuskerUlinzi StarsTuskerKakamega HomeboyzUlinzi StarsMombasa UnitedKakamega HomeboyzAFC Leopards SCKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzKenya Police FCKakamega HomeboyzKariobangi SharksKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzAFC Leopards SCMuranga SealKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzGor MahiaKenya Commercial BankKakamega HomeboyzShabana FCKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzUlinzi StarsNairobi UnitedKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzMathare UnitedPosta RangersKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerTuskerKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerTuskerKakamega HomeboyzKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTuskerKakamega HomeboyzTusker| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 |  Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  AFC Leopards SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 |  Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Kenya Commercial Bank | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 |  Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Kenya Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 |  Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 |  Aps Bomet FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 |  Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 |  Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz Prediction (Sep 11)
The Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz prediction for this Kenya Premier League clash on Sep 11, 2026, at 12:00 points towards a home advantage for Tusker. Based on head-to-head dominance and recent form, Tusker has a 40% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 35% and a Kakamega Homeboyz victory at 25%.
Team Form
Tusker's last five matches show mixed results: two draws, one win, one draw, and one loss (D, D, W, D, L). Their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw away to Al Ahli Wad Medani in the CAF Confederation Cup on Sep 06. Kakamega Homeboyz are struggling, with five winless games (D, D, L, L, L). They lost 1-2 at home to AFC Leopards SC on May 16 and fell 0-1 to Gor Mahia on May 03. The visitors have not won in their last five, scoring only 4 goals in that span.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, Tusker dominate this fixture. In 15 meetings, Tusker have won 11, Kakamega Homeboyz 2, with 2 draws. The last encounter on Mar 15, 2026, ended 2-0 to Tusker at home. The previous three matches all finished level, including a 1-1 draw in November 2025. Tusker have kept clean sheets in three of the last five H2H games.
League Table Positions
The Premier League season is yet to kick off, with all teams on 0 points. In the pre-season overall standings, Tusker are ranked 3rd and Kakamega Homeboyz 9th. No matches have been played, so current table positions reflect squad strength expectations rather than form.
Win Probability: Tusker or Kakamega Homeboyz?
Tusker has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Kakamega Homeboyz has a 25% chance. These probabilities start from bookmaker odds (home 2.80, draw 1.83, away 3.40) and are adjusted for Tusker's overwhelming H2H record (11 wins in 15) and home advantage. Kakamega Homeboyz's poor recent form (no wins in five) further reduces their likelihood of an away victory.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer varying odds. One set lists Tusker at 2.80, the draw at 1.83, and Kakamega Homeboyz at 3.40. Another shows a tighter market (2.80, 2.72, 2.52). The draw is priced as the most likely single outcome by some bookies, but the H2H and form data suggest Tusker should be considered the favourite. Our prediction: Tusker to win, with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline likely given their defensive solidity in recent H2H meetings.
Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz โ FAQ
- Who will win Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
- Based on the analysis, Tusker has a 40% chance of winning, a draw has a 35% probability, and Kakamega Homeboyz a 25% chance. Tusker's strong head-to-head record (11 wins in 15) and home advantage make them the most likely winner.
- What is the win probability for Tusker?
- Tusker has a 40% win probability. This is derived from bookmaker odds (home 2.80) and adjusted upward due to their dominant H2H record and Kakamega Homeboyz's poor form.
- When is the Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz match?
- The match is on Sep 11, 2026, at 12:00. It is a Kenya Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds vary: one bookmaker offers Tusker at 2.80, draw at 1.83, and Kakamega Homeboyz at 3.40. Another lists 2.80, 2.72, and 2.52 respectively. The draw is the shortest price in the first set, but H2H stats suggest a home win is more likely.