Ulinzi Stars - Tusker prediction 11 October 2026
Ulinzi Stars
TuskerUlinzi Stars
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 |  Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  AFC Leopards SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 |  Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Kenya Commercial Bank | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 |  Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Kenya Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 |  Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 |  Aps Bomet FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 |  Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker Prediction (Oct 11)
The Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction for this Kenya Premier League fixture on Oct 11 at 12:00 points towards an away win. Based on our analysis of the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, Tusker has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Ulinzi Stars has a 19% chance.
Team Form
Ulinzi Stars come into this match with a solid run of results at home. Their last five matches show three wins and two draws (W,W,W,D,D). Notably, they secured a 2-0 victory over Tusker on May 27 and a 2-1 win against Mathare United on May 23. The two recent draws were both 0-0 against Tusker on Sep 19 and Sep 1.
Tusker's recent away form has been characterized by a high number of draws. Their last five matches include one win and four draws (W,D,D,D,D). The win was a 1-0 home victory against Al Ahli Wad Medani in the CAF Confederation Cup on Sep 12. The draws include a 2-2 result away at Al Ahli Wad Medani and three 0-0 stalemates in the Premier League.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last 25 meetings between these two sides, Tusker holds the advantage with 10 wins compared to Ulinzi Stars' 4, alongside 11 draws. The most recent encounters have been tight, low-scoring affairs. The last two matches, both played in September 2026, ended in 0-0 draws. Before that, Ulinzi Stars won 2-0 at home in May 2026, while Tusker secured a 1-0 home win in December 2025.
League Table Positions
The Premier League standings currently show all teams at 0 points as the season is yet to commence. Ulinzi Stars and Tusker are both yet to play a league match, sitting alongside other teams like Mathare United and Gor Mahia with no games played, won, drawn, or lost.
Win Probability: Ulinzi Stars or Tusker?
Our calculated win probability for this match gives Tusker a 52% chance of winning, a draw a 29% chance, and Ulinzi Stars a 19% chance. This calculation is based on the bookmaker odds, which heavily favor Tusker, and is adjusted for the recent head-to-head record where Tusker have won 10 of 25 encounters. While Ulinzi Stars have strong recent home form with three wins, their historical struggles against Tusker and the odds imply the visitors are more likely to take all three points.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Tusker as the clear favorite for this match. The available odds show an away win for Tusker at around 1.83 to 1.85, a draw at 2.85 to 2.90, and a home win for Ulinzi Stars at 4.30 to 4.33. Based on the stats and the odds, the most likely outcome is a Tusker victory, although the high frequency of draws in their recent head-to-head meetings suggests a tight contest is expected.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker โ FAQ
- Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
- Based on our analysis, Tusker is the favorite to win with a 52% probability. A draw has a 29% chance, while a Ulinzi Stars victory is at 19%.
- What is the win probability for Tusker?
- Tusker has a 52% chance of winning the match. This is calculated from bookmaker odds of around 1.85 and their superior head-to-head record of 10 wins in 25 meetings against Ulinzi Stars.
- When is the Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, with a kick-off time of 12:00. It is a Premier League fixture in Kenya.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The pre-match odds for a Tusker win are around 1.83 to 1.85. A draw is priced at 2.85 to 2.90, and a Ulinzi Stars home win is available at 4.30 to 4.33.