AZ Alkmaar Women - Twente Women prediction 27 September 2026

Twente Women vs AZ Alkmaar Women prediction for the Friendly Clubs Women match on Jul 14, 2026, at 11:00. Our match analysis gives Twente Women a 45% win probability, while AZ Alkmaar Women have a 25% chance, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. Despite bookmakers favoring the away side, the head-to-head record heavily points towards a home victory.

Team Form

Twente Women's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses (W,W,D,L,L in chronological order). They secured a 3-0 away win at NAC Breda Women and a 3-2 home victory over PEC Zwolle Women, but then suffered back-to-back defeats against PSV Eindhoven Women (2-2 draw in the cup and 1-2 league loss, followed by a 0-2 cup loss).

AZ Alkmaar Women have also struggled for consistency. Their last five results show one win, two draws, and two losses (D,D,L,L,W). They drew 3-3 with Feyenoord Women and 1-1 with ADO Den Haag Women, lost heavily 1-5 to VV Heerenveen Women and 1-3 to Ajax Women, before ending with a 1-0 home win against SBV Excelsior/Barendrecht Rotterdam Women.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Twente Women and AZ Alkmaar Women is one-sided. In 24 previous meetings, Twente Women have won 20, with 4 draws, and AZ Alkmaar Women have never won. The most recent encounters further underline this dominance:

• Feb 08, 2026: Twente Women 4-1 AZ Alkmaar Women
• Jan 25, 2026: AZ Alkmaar Women 0-4 Twente Women
• Dec 06, 2025: Twente Women 0-0 AZ Alkmaar Women
• May 17, 2025: Twente Women 3-2 AZ Alkmaar Women
• Dec 22, 2024: AZ Alkmaar Women 0-1 Twente Women

Twente Women have scored 12 goals in these five matches, conceding just 3. This historical edge is a key factor in our prediction.

League Table Positions

As this is a Friendly Clubs Women match, there are no current league table positions to consider. Both teams are using this fixture as part of their pre-season preparations.

Win Probability: Twente Women or AZ Alkmaar Women?

Based on the available odds, team form, and head-to-head record, we have calculated the win probabilities for this match. The average bookmaker odds imply a 24% chance for a Twente Women win, 33% for a draw, and 43% for an AZ Alkmaar Women victory. However, these odds do not fully reflect the overwhelming head-to-head dominance of Twente Women (20 wins in 24 meetings, zero losses).

Adjusting for the H2H record, home advantage, and recent form, our model estimates the following probabilities:

• Twente Women win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• AZ Alkmaar Women win: 25%

Therefore, Twente Women are the more likely winner according to our analysis, despite the odds suggesting otherwise. The draw also has a significant chance, given both teams' recent inconsistency.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match with AZ Alkmaar Women as the favorite. The best odds available range from 3.20 to 4.20 for a Twente Women home win, 2.70 to 2.75 for a draw, and 1.91 to 2.30 for an AZ Alkmaar Women away win. These odds indicate that the betting market sees value in the away side, but the historical data challenges that view.

Our Twente Women vs AZ Alkmaar Women prediction is a home win, but with caution. The head-to-head record and home advantage give Twente the edge, but their recent form and the bookmakers' odds suggest a tight contest. A draw is a realistic outcome, and betting tips might consider the double chance 1X (Twente or draw) as a safer option.