Treaty United - UC Dublin prediction 2 October 2026

The Treaty United vs UC Dublin prediction for this First Division match on Oct 2, 2026, at 19:45 points to an evenly balanced contest at Markets Field. UC Dublin enters as the marginal favorite with a 35% win probability, while Treaty United has a 30% chance and a draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Treaty United's last five outings have been inconsistent: they beat Finn Harps 2-1 at home on Sep 25, 2026, lost 0-2 at Bray Wanderers, defeated Longford Town 2-0 away, then suffered a 0-1 home loss to Wexford FC and a 1-3 defeat at Kerry. Two wins and three losses highlight a vulnerable run.

UC Dublin's away form (last five matches mixed venues) shows a pattern of L, L, D, D, W. They fell 1-3 at home to Bray Wanderers and 1-5 at Cork City, drew 2-2 at home against Athlone Town, 1-1 away at Cobh Ramblers, and edged Finn Harps 5-4 at home. While the attack can click, defensive fragility remains.

Head-to-Head Record

In 15 overall meetings, Treaty United has 7 wins, UC Dublin 6, and 2 draws. The last five clashes produced three UC Dublin wins and two Treaty United victories. The most recent meeting on Aug 3, 2026, saw Treaty United win 2-1 away.

League Table Positions

UC Dublin sits 3rd in the First Division with 49 points (14 wins, 7 draws, 12 losses; 57 goals scored, 48 conceded), while Treaty United is 9th with 36 points (9 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses; 33 goals for, 48 against). The 13-point gap and superior goal difference clearly favor the visitors.

Win Probability: Treaty United or UC Dublin?

Bookmakers' odds imply a tight match, with the draw as the most likely single outcome. After normalizing the average odds (home around 2.61, draw 2.32, away 2.57) and adjusting for recent form, home advantage, and the league table, the calculated probabilities are: Treaty United win 30%, draw 35%, UC Dublin win 35%. The data suggests a draw is the single most frequent expectation, but UC Dublin carries a slight edge to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected 1X2 odds from bookmakers: home win 2.38–2.75, draw 2.28–2.38, away win 2.52–2.60. The low draw odds reflect the expectation of a closely fought encounter. Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head, the most likely outcome is a draw, with UC Dublin holding a marginal advantage if a winner emerges. A low-scoring affair is anticipated given both sides' recent defensive and offensive output.