Atletic Sant Just - UD San Mauro prediction 21 October 2026

Our Atletic Sant Just vs UD San Mauro prediction for the Regional League match on Oct 21, 2026, at 19:30 points to a tight contest. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Atletic Sant Just has a 38% chance of winning, a draw sits at 40%, and UD San Mauro has a 22% probability. The bookmakers see the draw as the most likely outcome, but home advantage gives Atletic Sant Just a slight edge over their opponents.

Team Form

Atletic Sant Just come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five outings show two wins, one draw, and two defeats (W, W, D, L, L). Most recently, they lost 2-1 away to Singuerlin on Sep 27, 2026. Before that, they suffered a 3-1 defeat at Sabadell B, drew 1-1 at home to Jupiter, beat UA Horta 1-0 away, and defeated Santfeliuenc FC 2-0 at home. The team has shown they can keep clean sheets and grind out results, especially at home.

UD San Mauro's form is less convincing. Their last five matches produced one win, one draw, and three losses (L, L, W, L, D). They lost 1-0 away to CF Martorell on Oct 18, 2026, followed by a 2-1 home loss to Pobla Mafumet, a 2-1 away win at AE Prat, a 1-0 home loss to AE Prat, and a 1-1 draw at Santfeliuenc FC. With only one victory in that stretch, they will need a significant improvement to take points from this fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met only once before, on Dec 2, 2025, in the Regional League. That match ended in a 0-0 draw, with UD San Mauro as the home team. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Atletic Sant Just, 1 draw, and 0 wins for UD San Mauro. The lack of goals in that encounter suggests another tight, low-scoring affair could be on the cards.

Win Probability: Atletic Sant Just or UD San Mauro?

We calculate the win probabilities using the bookmaker odds as a base, then adjust for recent form and home advantage. The normalized odds imply a 34.5% chance for an Atletic Sant Just win, 43% for a draw, and 22.5% for a UD San Mauro victory. Factoring in Atletic Sant Just's slightly better form (two wins in five vs one win in five) and the home pitch advantage, we raise the home win probability to 38% and lower the draw to 40%, while UD San Mauro's chance drops to 22%. Thus, a draw remains the single most likely outcome, but Atletic Sant Just is the more probable winner if there is one.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current 1X2 odds are: home win 2.62, draw 2.10, away win 4.00. Bookmakers clearly rate the draw as the favorite, which aligns with the teams' recent struggles to secure victories and the 0-0 head-to-head result. Our Atletic Sant Just vs UD San Mauro prediction is a cautious one: a low-scoring draw is the most expected result. However, if you are looking for a winner, Atletic Sant Just's home form and slightly better recent results make them the safer pick. Betting tips would lean towards the draw or a home win with a small stake. Always consider that Regional League matches can be unpredictable, and the odds reflect the tight nature of this contest.