UE Cornella - Peralada prediction 14 October 2026

The UE Cornella vs Peralada prediction for this Tercera Federacion clash on October 14, 2026, at 19:00 points to a tight contest where the hosts hold a slight edge. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, UE Cornella has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 40%, and Peralada has a 20% chance.

Team Form

UE Cornella come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five outings show one win, three draws, and one defeat (W, D, D, D, L). The most recent fixture was a 1-0 away loss to Pobla Mafumet on October 11. Prior to that, they played out three consecutive draws, including a 0-0 stalemate against this same Peralada side on October 3. The only victory in this stretch was a 3-1 home success over Cerdanyola del Valles FC on September 12.

Peralada, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five away matches (W, W, D, D, D). They recorded back-to-back 3-0 wins on September 27 against Atletic Lleida CE and Club Lleida Esportiu, and have since drawn 1-1 at Vilanova Geltru and 1-1 at CP San Cristobal. The 0-0 draw at UE Cornella on October 3 further underlines their defensive solidity on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favours UE Cornella, with 8 wins to Peralada’s 4, alongside 4 draws. However, recent meetings tell a different story. In the last three encounters, Peralada are unbeaten, winning 3-0 at home in January 2026 and 2-1 away in September 2025, before the goalless draw earlier this month. The most recent five matches between these sides have produced two draws and two Peralada wins, with UE Cornella’s last victory dating back further.

Win Probability: UE Cornella or Peralada?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the average match odds (home 2.09, draw 2.38, away 4.93), the raw implied probabilities are 43.4% for a UE Cornella win, 38.2% for the draw, and 18.4% for a Peralada win. Adjusting for current form and the head-to-head trend, we slightly lower the home win chance and raise the draw likelihood. UE Cornella’s recent struggles to convert draws into wins and Peralada’s unbeaten away sequence make a stalemate very plausible. Therefore, our final win probability assessment is: UE Cornella 40%, Draw 40%, Peralada 20%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see UE Cornella as the favourite, with best home win odds as low as 1.65 and a market average around 2.09. The draw is priced tightly at 2.10–2.15 across most books, reflecting the expectation of a close game. Peralada’s away win odds range from 4.50 to 6.00. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw. Both teams have drawn three of their last five matches, and the recent head-to-head ended 0-0. A 1-1 correct score could be a sensible betting tip, but the safest prediction is the draw given the 40% probability and attractive odds around 2.38.