Uganda Police - UPDF FC prediction 10 September 2026
Uganda Police
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bul FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:4 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  Entebbe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7:2 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Blacks Power/Bukedea TC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 |  Vipers SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:2 | +11 | 11 |
| 7 |  Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Kampala Capital City Authority | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lugazi Municipal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Express FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 |  Mbarara City FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  URA FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4:17 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 |  Kigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
Uganda Police vs UPDF FC Prediction (Sep 10)
The Uganda Police vs UPDF FC prediction for the Premier League match on Sep 10, 2026, at 13:00 points to a home victory. Our analysis gives Uganda Police a 55% win probability, with the draw at 25% and UPDF FC at 20%. Bookmakers and recent form both back the hosts as clear favourites.
Team Form
Uganda Police come into this fixture with mixed results. Their last five matches show two draws, two defeats and one win (L, W, L, D, D). The most recent outing was a 0-1 loss at Blacks Power/Bukedea TC on Sep 02, but they did beat Mbarara City FC 1-0 at home on Aug 29. Earlier, they lost 0-2 to Maroons and drew 2-2 at Kitara FC and 1-1 at home to Entebbe. The attack has managed just four goals in that spell, while the defence kept one clean sheet.
UPDF FC are in poor shape. Their last five away/neutral matches have produced four losses and one draw (L, L, D, L, L). They fell 1-2 at Entebbe on Sep 01, 1-2 at SC Villa on May 23, and 0-2 at Entebbe on May 07. The only point came from a 0-0 draw at home to Calvary FC on May 19. They have scored just three goals and conceded eight in those five games, failing to win any.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favours Uganda Police. In nine previous meetings, Uganda Police have won five, UPDF FC one, with three draws. The last five encounters underline the trend:
- Apr 29, 2026: Uganda Police 2-0 UPDF FC
- Nov 06, 2025: UPDF FC 1-2 Uganda Police
- May 15, 2025: Uganda Police 1-0 UPDF FC
- Nov 27, 2024: UPDF FC 2-2 Uganda Police
- Feb 10, 2022: Uganda Police 2-2 UPDF FC
Uganda Police are unbeaten in the last five H2Hs (three wins, two draws) and have kept three clean sheets in that run. UPDF FC last beat Uganda Police in one of the earlier meetings not listed here.
League Table Positions
In the Uganda Premier League standings, Uganda Police sit 9th with 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 loss). They have scored 1 goal and conceded 1. At home, they are 6th with a perfect record: played 1, won 1, goals for 1, against 0. UPDF FC are outside the top 12 in the overall table and do not appear in the away standings, indicating a lower position. The gap in league standing and home advantage further strengthens the case for the hosts.
Win Probability: Uganda Police or UPDF FC?
Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record and league positions, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:
- Uganda Police win: 55%
- Draw: 25%
- UPDF FC win: 20%
The odds imply a home win probability around 51%, but Uganda Police's dominant H2H (5 wins in 9), slightly better recent form and strong home record (1 win from 1 home game) push that number higher. UPDF FC's terrible away form (four losses in five) and lowly league position reduce their chances. The draw remains a realistic outcome, but the hosts are the clear most likely winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakersโ odds for the 1X2 market vary. Most firms price a Uganda Police win around 1.60โ1.62, the draw at 2.10โ3.35, and a UPDF FC victory at 4.90โ5.50. One outlier offers 1.26 for the home win, 3.00 for the draw and 2.49 for the away win. The general market sees Uganda Police as the favourite. Our Uganda Police vs UPDF FC prediction aligns with that view: based on the stats, a home win is the most probable outcome. For betting tips, the 1.62 odds for a Uganda Police victory offer value given the 55% implied chance.
Uganda Police vs UPDF FC โ FAQ
- Who will win Uganda Police vs UPDF FC?
- Uganda Police are the favourites to win. Our analysis gives them a 55% chance, while the draw has a 25% probability and UPDF FC a 20% chance. The hosts' strong head-to-head record and UPDF FC's poor form make a home victory the most likely result.
- What is the win probability for Uganda Police?
- Uganda Police have a 55% win probability. This is based on bookmaker odds, their dominant H2H record (5 wins in 9 meetings), a solid home start to the season, and UPDF FC's run of four losses in five away matches.
- When is the Uganda Police vs UPDF FC match?
- The match is on Sep 10, 2026, at 13:00 local time. It is a Uganda Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Most bookmakers offer odds around 1.60โ1.62 for a Uganda Police win, 2.10โ3.35 for the draw, and 4.90โ5.50 for a UPDF FC victory. One bookmaker has a different line with 1.26 for the home win, 3.00 for the draw and 2.49 for the away win.
- What is the head-to-head record between Uganda Police and UPDF FC?
- In nine previous meetings, Uganda Police have won 5, UPDF FC have won 1, and there have been 3 draws. The last five matches saw three Uganda Police wins and two draws, including a 2-0 victory in April 2026.