Ulfarnir - Alafoss prediction 3 September 2026

Looking for an Ulfarnir vs Alafoss prediction for the 4th Division match on September 3, 2026? The match kicks off at 20:00 UTC, and based on recent form, head-to-head stats, and the latest odds, Ulfarnir is the favorite with a 48% chance of winning, while the draw holds a 28% probability and Alafoss a 24% chance.

Team Form

Ulfarnir (Last 5 matches: L, L, L, D, L)

Ulfarnir are in terrible form, having lost four of their last five matches and conceding goals heavily. They lost 4-2 away to Vaengir Jupiters, then fell 0-2 at home to KFR Hvolsvollur. A 10-0 thrashing at Alftanes exposed defensive frailties, and a 3-3 home draw with Ellidi was followed by a 2-0 loss at Arborg. Over these five games, they scored only 5 goals and conceded 18.

Alafoss (Last 5 matches: L, L, L, W, D)

Alafoss have also struggled, with three losses in their last five. They were beaten 5-0 at Hamar Hveragerdi and 0-4 at home to Vaengir Jupiters, then lost 1-0 at Ellidi. A 4-2 away win at IH Hafnarfjordur offered some relief, and they drew 2-2 with Ulfarnir in their most recent encounter. Their form is slightly better than Ulfarnir's, but they remain inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Record

The two teams have met twice before, both times with Alafoss as the home side. Ulfarnir have never lost to Alafoss, winning one and drawing one. On June 25, 2026, the teams drew 2-2 in the 4th Division. Earlier, on June 19, 2023, Ulfarnir won 4-2 in a Cup match. Both matches saw over 2.5 goals. Ulfarnir's unbeaten H2H record gives them a psychological edge.

Win Probability: Ulfarnir or Alafoss?

After analyzing the odds, team form, and head-to-head record, we assign Ulfarnir a 48% chance of winning, the draw 28%, and Alafoss a 24% chance. The bookmakers' implied odds (from the first listed bookmaker) gave Ulfarnir a 51% probability, but their dreadful recent form – four losses in five games – reduces that figure. The draw is elevated because both teams are prone to mistakes and neither has been decisive. Alafoss's away form is poor, but they managed a win recently. Home advantage for Ulfarnir is offset by their heavy defeats at home. Overall, Ulfarnir remains the most likely winner, but the match is far from a sure thing.

Ulfarnir vs Alafoss Prediction: Odds & Match Tip

Bookmakers have Ulfarnir as the favorite with odds of around 1.73 for a home win. The draw is priced at 3.50, and an Alafoss win at 3.80. These are the first odds from the available list; other bookmakers show similar ranges (home 1.70–1.73, draw 3.30–3.60, away 3.80–4.33). Based on the stats, Ulfarnir is the most probable winner, but the draw is a realistic option given both teams' form. Our tip: Ulfarnir to win, but with both teams' leaky defenses, betting on over 2.5 goals could also be considered.