Ullensaker-Kisa - Kjelsas prediction 3 October 2026

The Ullensaker-Kisa vs Kjelsas prediction for the Norwegian 2nd Division match on October 3, 2026, points to a clear away favorite. Our analysis, combining bookmaker odds with recent form and head-to-head data, gives Kjelsas a 68% win probability, while Ullensaker-Kisa has just a 10% chance and the draw sits at 22%.

Team Form

Ullensaker-Kisa is in a deep crisis, losing all of their last five matches:

• Sep 26: Stjordals Blink 3–0 Ullensaker-Kisa (L)
• Sep 20: Ullensaker-Kisa 2–3 Junkeren (L)
• Sep 11: Eidsvold Turn 3–1 Ullensaker-Kisa (L)
• Sep 6: Ullensaker-Kisa 0–5 Levanger (L)
• Aug 30: Rana FK 2–1 Ullensaker-Kisa (L)

They have conceded 16 goals in these five games, averaging over three per match, while scoring only four times. Home advantage has offered no relief, with the last two home fixtures ending in defeats and nine goals conceded.

Kjelsas comes into this match with mixed form: D, L, L, W, L in their last five outings:

• Sep 26: Kjelsas 2–2 Follo (D)
• Sep 20: Grorud 3–2 Kjelsas (L)
• Sep 16: Kjelsas 0–2 Ham-Kam (Cup, L)
• Sep 13: Kjelsas 5–0 Stjordals Blink (W)
• Sep 5: Skeid 4–1 Kjelsas (L)

The 5–0 thrashing of Stjordals Blink shows what Kjelsas can produce on their day, but defensive frailties have been evident in the other matches. Still, they face an opponent in far worse shape.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings, Kjelsas holds a slight edge with 3 wins to Ullensaker-Kisa's 2, along with 2 draws. The recent trend is heavily one-sided: Kjelsas has won the last three encounters, including a 3–0 home victory on June 20, 2026. The last time Ullensaker-Kisa beat Kjelsas was earlier than 2022. The most recent H2H results are:

• Jun 20, 2026: Kjelsas 3–0 Ullensaker-Kisa
• Oct 11, 2025: Kjelsas 3–1 Ullensaker-Kisa
• Apr 17, 2025: Ullensaker-Kisa 1–2 Kjelsas

Kjelsas has scored 8 goals in those three wins, conceding just 2.

Win Probability: Ullensaker-Kisa or Kjelsas?

We calculated the win probabilities by taking the average bookmaker odds (home 6.87, draw 3.50, away 1.36), converting them to implied probabilities, and removing the margin. The base probabilities were 12.5% for a home win, 24.5% for a draw, and 63% for an away win. We then adjusted these figures to account for Ullensaker-Kisa’s five-match losing streak, their defensive collapse, and Kjelsas’ dominant recent head-to-head record. The final probabilities are:

• Ullensaker-Kisa win: 10%
• Draw: 22%
• Kjelsas win: 68%

Kjelsas is clearly the more likely winner. Even with home advantage, Ullensaker-Kisa’s form makes an upset highly improbable.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Kjelsas. The average odds across six bookmakers are 6.87 for a home win, 3.50 for a draw, and 1.36 for an away win. Some bookies offer as low as 1.25 on a Kjelsas victory. Based on the stats, Kjelsas should secure all three points. The value on the away win is limited at those odds, but the form gap suggests a comfortable away victory is the most likely outcome. Our prediction: Kjelsas to win.