FC Jarfalla - Umea FC prediction 11 October 2026

This FC Jarfalla vs Umea FC prediction breaks down the Division 1 clash on October 11, 2026, at 14:00 local time. Based on form, head-to-head, and bookmaker odds, Umea FC is the favourite with a 39% win probability, while FC Jarfalla sits at 27% and the draw at 34%.

Team Form

FC Jarfalla come into this match with mixed but mostly poor recent results (D, L, L, W, L in their last five). A 1-1 draw at IFK Stocksund on Oct 3 stopped a losing streak, but heavy defeats to AFC Eskilstuna (2-4) and Pitea IF (1-3) exposed defensive issues. The lone bright spot was a 5-0 home thrashing of Karlbergs BK, yet they immediately fell 1-3 to Gefle IF. In those five outings, they conceded 11 goals.

• Oct 3: IFK Stocksund 1-1 FC Jarfalla (D)
• Sep 26: FC Jarfalla 2-4 AFC Eskilstuna (L)
• Sep 20: Pitea IF 3-1 FC Jarfalla (L)
• Sep 17: FC Jarfalla 5-0 Karlbergs BK (W)
• Sep 12: Gefle IF 3-1 FC Jarfalla (L)

Umea FC have been more consistent, posting three wins in their last five (W, L, W, W, L). They edged Hammarby Talang 2-1 at home, lost 1-3 to FBK Karlstad, then collected impressive away wins at IFK Stocksund (3-0) and Pitea IF (2-0). A shock 0-4 home loss to Stockholm Internazionale is a reminder of fragility, but their away form is especially strong – two clean sheets on the road.

• Oct 4: Umea FC 2-1 Hammarby Talang (W)
• Sep 27: Umea FC 1-3 FBK Karlstad (L)
• Sep 20: IFK Stocksund 0-3 Umea FC (W)
• Sep 16: Pitea IF 0-2 Umea FC (W)
• Sep 13: Umea FC 0-4 Stockholm Internazionale (L)

Head-to-Head Record

The only prior meeting came on June 28, 2026, when FC Jarfalla won 3-1 away at Umea FC. That head-to-head edge is small and the current form of both sides suggests a different dynamic this time.

Win Probability: FC Jarfalla or Umea FC?

We started with the inverse of the 1X2 betting odds, then adjusted for recent results, home/away factor, and the H2H data. The final probabilities are: FC Jarfalla 27%, Draw 34%, Umea FC 39%. The odds market sees Umea FC as the narrow favourite, and their strong away form (two wins, no goals conceded) tips the balance – even though FC Jarfalla hold the historical advantage. Home form for Jarfalla is weak, making an away victory the most likely single outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of pre-match 1X2 odds. A home win for FC Jarfalla is priced between 2.90 and 3.30, a draw from 2.38 to 3.70, and an away win for Umea FC from 2.00 to 2.37 – with some bookies as short as 2.00. The trend clearly points to Umea FC as the favoured side. Taking form, odds, and the H2H into account, our FC Jarfalla vs Umea FC prediction is an away win for Umea FC.