Unia Swarzedz - Kss Kotwica Kornik prediction 3 October 2026

The Unia Swarzedz vs Kss Kotwica Kornik prediction for October 3, 2026, points to a tight III Liga contest where the hosts hold a historical edge but arrive in patchy form. Kick-off is at 11:00, and based on head-to-head dominance and home advantage, Unia Swarzedz enter as slight favourites with a 40% win probability, while the draw sits at 35% and Kss Kotwica Kornik at 25%.

Team Form

Unia Swarzedz have managed just one win in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3), most recently beating Flota Swinoujscie 2-0 away. That result ended a three-match winless run that included a 3-1 home loss to KTS-K Luzino and a 4-3 defeat at Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska. At home, the picture is mixed: a 1-1 draw with Lech Poznan II and the aforementioned loss to KTS-K Luzino.

Kss Kotwica Kornik, by contrast, have won three of their last five (W3 L2), though the two defeats were heavy — a 6-1 thrashing at Gedania Gdansk and a 3-1 home reverse against Grom Nowy Staw. Their three wins all saw them score four goals (4-1 vs Lipno Steszew, 4-2 at Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski, 4-1 vs Chemik Bydgoszcz), suggesting they carry a potent attacking threat when on song.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Unia Swarzedz, who are unbeaten in four previous meetings (W1 D3 L0). The most recent clash, a July 2026 friendly, ended 2-1 to Unia Swarzedz away. The three prior III Liga and friendly encounters all finished level: 3-3, 2-2, and 1-1. This pattern of draws and Unia’s ability to avoid defeat is a key factor in the win probability calculation.

League Table Positions

Neither Unia Swarzedz nor Kss Kotwica Kornik feature in the top 12 of the overall III Liga standings provided, indicating both sides are likely in the lower half of the table. Specific positions and points are not available, but the absence from the leading pack suggests a closely matched affair between two teams fighting for mid-to-lower table security.

Win Probability: Unia Swarzedz or Kss Kotwica Kornik?

After analysing all available data, the win probabilities for this match are:

• Unia Swarzedz win: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Kss Kotwica Kornik win: 25%

Unia Swarzedz’s unbeaten H2H record (1 win, 3 draws) and home advantage are the main drivers behind their favourite status. However, their recent form (1 win in 5) tempers that confidence. Kss Kotwica Kornik’s three wins in five show they can score heavily, but defensive frailties in defeats and a poor H2H record away from home reduce their chances. The high draw probability reflects the three stalemates in four previous meetings and the inconsistent form of both sides.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for this fixture are not available in the data. Based purely on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Unia Swarzedz win or a draw. The prediction leans towards a low-scoring draw, consistent with the 1-1 and 2-2 results seen in recent H2H matches. Kss Kotwica Kornik’s attacking bursts could trouble the hosts, but Unia’s historical resilience in this matchup makes them the safer pick to avoid defeat.