Zarzis - Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir prediction 16 September 2026

The Zarzis vs Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir prediction for this League 1 clash on Sep 16, 2026, gets underway at 15:00 local time in Tunisia. Bookmakers see Zarzis as the slight favorite, but our win probability analysis reveals a tight contest where the draw is the most likely single outcome at 38%.

Team Form

Zarzis have been inconsistent in their last five matches, alternating losses and wins (L, W, L, W, L). Their most recent outing ended in a 1-0 defeat away to Diambars in the CAF Confederation Cup on Sep 12. Prior to that, they secured a 3-1 home win against the same opponent, but lost 2-1 at Club Sportif Sfaxien and beat Olympique Beja 1-0 at home before a 1-0 home loss to Esperance.

Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir show slightly better recent form (D, W, D, W, L). They drew 3-3 at home versus Ben Guerdane, then beat Stade Tunisien 2-1, followed by a goalless away draw at Hammam-Sousse. A 3-0 victory over AS Slimane and a 1-0 away loss to JS Kairouanaise round out their last five games. With two wins, two draws and just one loss, the away side arrives with more momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir. In 14 previous meetings, Zarzis have won only once, there have been 5 draws, and US Monastirienne have claimed 8 wins. Looking at the last five encounters, the dominance is clear: Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir won 3-0 at home on Feb 15, 2026, beat Zarzis 1-0 away on Sep 17, 2025, and also won 2-1 away on Mar 13, 2025. The other two fixtures ended 0-0 (Apr 19, 2026 in the Cup, and Dec 1, 2024). Zarzis have failed to beat Union Sportive Monastirienne in these recent meetings.

League Table Positions

In the League 1 standings, Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir sit in 6th place with 5 points from 3 matches (1 win, 2 draws), while Zarzis are 12th with 3 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 loss). The home table shows Zarzis have a perfect record at home? Actually, they've played one home game and won, but also lost their other game away, leaving them just outside the top 8. Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir’s only away match so far ended in a 0-0 draw, so they remain unbeaten on the road. Points-per-game figures are very close, but the away side’s ability to avoid defeat gives them a slight statistical edge.

Win Probability: Zarzis or Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir?

Using the average bookmaker odds (Zarzis 2.39, draw 2.01, Union Sportive Monastirienne 3.81), we calculated the implied probabilities and removed the margin. The raw figures show Zarzis 35.5%, draw 42.3%, away win 22.3%. We then adjusted these numbers based on head-to-head records (US Monastirienne’s 8 wins vs Zarzis’ 1) and current form (Zarzis’ L-W-L-W-L vs Monastirienne’s D-W-D-W-L). The final win probabilities are: Zarzis 32%, draw 38%, Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir 30%. The draw is the most probable single outcome, but Zarzis hold a tiny advantage in the win market. Total uncertainty makes this a difficult match to call.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds across major platforms place Zarzis as the favorite at around 2.39, a draw at 2.01, and a Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir victory at 3.81. This reflects the market’s view that the home side should edge it, but the low draw odds underline the tightness of the contest. Based on the stats, head-to-head history, and team form, our match prediction is a draw or a narrow away win. We recommend cautious bets, as Union Sportive Monastirienne Monastir have the mental edge and rarely lose to Zarzis. A 1-1 stalemate looks the most realistic outcome.