Universidad Catolica del Ecuador - SD Aucas Quito prediction 1 November 2026

Our Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas Quito prediction for the Serie A match on Nov 1, 2026, points to a tight contest with the home side holding a slight edge. We give Universidad Catolica del Ecuador a 40% win probability, while a draw is at 35% and SD Aucas Quito has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador come into this match with a mixed run of results: two draws, two defeats, and one win in their last five outings. They held Independiente Del Valle (0-0) and Barcelona Guayaquil (1-1) to credible away draws, but suffered a 0-1 home loss to Macara and a 2-1 defeat at LDU Quito. The sole victory was a 2-1 home success against Orense SC on Sep 15. That form leaves them winless in four, a concern for the home side.

SD Aucas Quito are also struggling, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. A heavy 0-4 home defeat to Barcelona Guayaquil on Oct 25 was followed by a 1-1 draw with LDU Quito. Earlier, they lost 2-1 at Independiente Del Valle and 1-2 at home to Macara, and drew 0-0 at Manta FC. The visitors have not won in five attempts, making this a clash of two out-of-form sides.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two Ecuadorian clubs is perfectly balanced: 10 wins for Universidad Catolica del Ecuador, 10 for SD Aucas Quito, and 4 draws. In the last five meetings, Aucas have had a slight edge with two wins, while Catolica won once and two games ended level. The most recent encounter on Sep 3, 2026, finished 1-1 at this venue. Notably, Catolica’s last home win in this fixture was a thumping 6-2 victory in August 2025. The H2H record suggests another close contest is on the cards.

League Table Positions

In the Serie A overall standings, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador sit 2nd with 51 points from 30 games, just one point ahead of 4th-placed SD Aucas Quito (50 points). Catolica boast the second-best home record in the league: 10 wins, 3 draws, and only 2 losses, scoring 37 goals and conceding just 14 at home. Aucas, meanwhile, are the second-best away side, with 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats on the road, scoring 14 and conceding 12. The table underlines the home advantage for Catolica, but Aucas’s solid away form cannot be ignored.

Win Probability: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador or SD Aucas Quito?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we have calculated the win probabilities for this match. The bookmakers’ odds (home 2.40, draw 2.25, away 4.00) imply a tight contest, with the draw as the single most likely outcome. After removing the margin and adjusting for home advantage and league standing, we assign Universidad Catolica del Ecuador a 40% chance of winning, the draw a 35% probability, and SD Aucas Quito a 25% chance. The home side’s strong record at their own stadium gives them a slight edge, but both teams’ poor recent form makes a stalemate a very realistic result.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market show Universidad Catolica del Ecuador at 2.40, the draw at 2.25, and SD Aucas Quito at 4.00. These odds reflect the bookmakers’ view that a draw is the most probable single outcome, with the home team not far behind. Our Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas Quito prediction aligns with this assessment but leans slightly towards a home win. Considering the stats, the most likely match outcome is a narrow victory for Universidad Catolica del Ecuador, but a draw is a strong possibility. Betting tips: the draw or a home win double chance could offer value.