URA FC - Kampala Capital City Authority prediction 9 October 2026

The URA FC vs Kampala Capital City Authority prediction for this Uganda Premier League fixture on October 9, 2026, at 18:00 points to a tight contest. Based on the latest odds, head-to-head record, and current form, Kampala Capital City Authority enters as the slight favorite with a 41% win probability, while URA FC holds a 34% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

URA FC comes into this match with inconsistent results. Their last five outings show two losses, two wins, and one draw (L, L, W, W, D). A heavy 4-1 defeat away to NEC Bugolobi on September 15 and a 1-0 home loss to SC Villa on September 4 highlight defensive vulnerabilities. However, earlier wins against Maroons (2-1) and Buhimba United Saints FC (3-0) demonstrate their potential when they click.

Kampala Capital City Authority's recent form is also patchy, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (W, D, L, L, L). A 1-0 home victory over Kataka FC on September 16 broke a poor run that included a 2-0 loss at Express FC and a 2-0 home defeat to NEC Bugolobi. They have struggled for goals, scoring just once in their last four league matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two sides is remarkably balanced. In 27 previous meetings, Kampala Capital City Authority has 10 wins, URA FC has 9, and 8 matches have ended in draws. The most recent encounter, on May 19, 2026, finished 0-0. Before that, Kampala Capital City Authority secured a 2-1 home victory in November 2025, while URA FC won 1-0 at home in April 2025. The last three matches have produced two draws, suggesting a closely matched rivalry.

League Table Positions

Kampala Capital City Authority sits 12th in the overall Premier League standings with 4 points from 4 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring just 1 goal and conceding 4. URA FC is not listed in the current top 12 of the overall table, indicating a slow start to their campaign. In the away standings, Kampala Capital City Authority does not appear in the top 8, reflecting their struggles on the road. The home table also lacks URA FC, pointing to a lack of early-season home dominance.

Win Probability: URA FC or Kampala Capital City Authority?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities for this match are: URA FC 34%, Draw 25%, Kampala Capital City Authority 41%. These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds (inverse of the best available odds, normalized to remove the margin), then adjusted for the head-to-head balance, recent form, and the home advantage factor. The odds imply Kampala Capital City Authority is the favorite, and their slightly superior head-to-head edge (10 wins to 9) supports this, though URA FC's home status and the high number of historical draws keep the probabilities close.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the best odds of 3.20 for a URA FC home win, 2.90 for the draw, and 2.20 for an away win by Kampala Capital City Authority. These odds clearly position the visitors as the favorite. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow Kampala Capital City Authority victory, but the high draw probability and URA FC's potential to grind out a result make this a difficult match to call with certainty. A low-scoring affair is expected, given both teams' recent struggles in front of goal.