UPDF FC - URA FC prediction 27 October 2026

The UPDF FC vs URA FC prediction for Oct 27 sees URA FC as the narrow favourite with a 35% win probability, ahead of UPDF FC’s 25% chance and a draw at 40%. This Uganda Premier League match kicks off at 13:00 on October 27, 2026.

Team Form

UPDF FC have been inconsistent lately. In their last five matches they recorded two draws, one loss and two wins: a goalless draw at Kampala Capital City Authority (Oct 22), a 0-2 home defeat to Bul FC (Oct 18), a 2-1 away win at Express FC (Oct 15), a 1-0 home victory over Maroons (Sep 17) and another 0-0 draw at Uganda Police (Sep 10). That run gives them 8 points from the last 15 available.

URA FC arrive in poor form, especially considering their historical status. Their last five outings show one draw and four defeats: a 2-3 loss at Blacks Power/Bukedea TC (Oct 24), a 0-0 home draw with Entebbe (Oct 15), a 0-1 home loss to Kampala Capital City Authority (Oct 9), a 1-4 thrashing at NEC Bugolobi (Sep 15) and a 0-1 home reverse against SC Villa (Sep 4). The visitors have picked up just one point from those five matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in four of them.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met 15 times in the Premier League. URA FC dominate the head‑to‑head with 8 wins to UPDF FC’s 2 victories, while 5 games ended all square. The most recent meetings confirm URA FC’s superiority: the last five clashes produced three URA FC wins and two draws. The latest encounter on Apr 24, 2026 finished 0-0 at UPDF FC.

League Table Positions

UPDF FC are 10th in the overall standings with 8 points from 6 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 4 and conceding 5. There is no current league position data available for URA FC in the supplied table, so a direct comparison cannot be made.

Win Probability: UPDF FC or URA FC?

Considering all available data, we assign the following match outcome probabilities: a draw is the most likely result at 40%, URA FC win sits at 35%, and UPDF FC win is 25%. The draw probability is lifted by several factors: both teams have recent draws in their form (UPDF two in five, URA one in five), the head‑to‑head includes two draws in the last five meetings, and the bookmakers’ lowest average odds are for the draw (2.50). URA FC’s 35% edge comes from a historically dominant H2H record (8 wins in 15 games) and the fact they won three of the last five encounters, despite their terrible away form. UPDF FC’s 25% reflects their occasional home wins but a persistent inability to beat URA FC – they have only two H2H victories ever.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds (averaged from four sources) price a home win at about 2.90, a draw at 2.50 and an away win at 2.64. This makes the draw the most favoured outcome in the 1X2 market, matching our probability model. Based on the stats, head‑to‑head and current form, a draw looks the safest call, yet if a team is likely to nick it, URA FC hold a slight upper hand. Our match prediction is therefore a cagey affair with a strong possibility of a stalemate, but URA FC are worth considering in the ‘draw no bet’ market.